The No.1-seeded Duke Blue Devils (28-3) and No.1-seeded Wisconsin Badgers (28-3) meet in the National Championship of the NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Action begins at 9:20 pm ET on Monday, Apr. 6 and can be seen on CBS.
The Blue Devils come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, dismantling Michigan State 81-61 in the Final Four. Justise Winslow was the team’s leading scorer with 19 points on 5-for-7 shooting. The Badgers, meanwhile, are coming off a 71-64 win against Kentucky in the Final Four. Frank Kaminsky claimed his 10th double-double of the season with 20 points and 11 rebounds.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out, as two of the nation’s top rebounding teams face off. Duke is among the nation’s best on the offensive glass, ranking 19th in OR% at 37.5%. Meanwhile, Wisconsin ranks third in the nation at corralling defensive boards with a DR% of 76.3%. The Badgers should also expect to protect the ball well. They rank first at avoiding errors (TO% of 12.6%). Conversely, the Blue Devils force the 23rd-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ TO% of 29.0%).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Blue Devils winning the first matchup 81-61. Winslow had a stellar game with 19 points, nine rebounds, two assists, and two steals.
The odds for Duke and Wisconsin are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 140 points. The Blue Devils come into this game 34-4 Straight Up (SU) and 23-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Blue Devils are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting an impressive .392 from beyond the arc. The rebounding edge goes to the Blue Devils in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 37.7 boards per game. Duke is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.38. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, the Blue Devils prevent teams from making three-pointers, ranking 50th in the nation with 164 total three-pointers allowed (5.3 per game).
As for their opponent, the Badgers have a record of 21-17-1 ATS and 36-3 SU. The Badgers convert their shots at a high percentage, ranking 21st in the country at .480. The Badgers are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking third in Division I at 1.63.
The Blue Devils’ win over Wisconsin in their last game bumped their SU record to 2-1 over Wisconsin. The Blue Devils also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 2-1.
Predictions: SU Winner – DUKE, ATS Winner – DUKE, O/U – Over
Notes
The Duke Blue Devils have the third-best offensive rating in the nation (120.3). The Wisconsin Badgers have a defensive rating of 169.0 (ranked 85th).
The Duke Blue Devils average 67.5 possessions and 1.203 points per possession in games this season. The Wisconsin Badgers average fewer possessions with 59.9, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.196.
The Duke Blue Devils have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking fifth in the country with an eFG% of 57.0%. The Wisconsin Badgers have a solid 4-2 record in games where opponents have a similar or higher eFG%.
The Duke Blue Devils rank 16th in assists per game with an average of 15.7. The Wisconsin Badgers are among the worst in the country with 12.4 assists per game (ranked 195th).
Duke, the 37th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 37.7 rebounds per game. Wisconsin does worse, ranked 194th with 34.0.
Wisconsin ranks 270th in offensive rebounds, while Duke ranks at 47th in defensive rebounds.
