The Dallas Mavericks (50-32) travel to the Toyota Center to play the division rival Houston Rockets (56-26), who are currently the top team in the Southwest. The game gets underway at 9:30 pm ET on Saturday, Apr. 18 and will air on ESPN.
The Rockets won big over the Jazz 117-91 on Wednesday. Houston was led by James Harden, who recorded his fourth triple-double on the season. He dominated, registering 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are coming off a 114-98 win over the Trail Blazers on Wednesday. Tyson Chandler had a good game and claimed his 31st double-double of the season, posting 22 points and 15 rebounds.
Chandler has been on fire over the last five games for the Mavericks, averaging 15.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks.
It could be a sloppy game for Houston offense, which ranks 28th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.9%). They’ll be facing the gambling defense of Dallas, which forces the fourth-most turnovers in the NBA (15.7%). Also, the Mavericks commit the fourth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.7%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Rockets causes the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.5%).
The Rockets have won three out of four against the Mavericks this season, including a 108-101 victory in their last matchup. Trevor Ariza was a top performer in the victory with 19 points, six rebounds, six assists, two steals, and three three-pointers.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Rockets look to build on their records of 56-26 Straight Up (SU) and 48-34 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 8-8 SU and 9-7 ATS against teams from their own division. The most recent ten-game stretch for the Rockets has gone great. Over that span, Houston is averaging 107.2 points per game, well over their season average of 0.0. Houston is excellent from the perimeter with a league-high 933 three-pointers made (11.4 per game). Houston has left their fans wanting more on the defensive side recently. The Rockets have given up an average of 102.3 points to opponents in their last 10 games, well over their defense’s season average of 0.0 PPG. Teams really have to fight for open three-pointers against the Rockets, who have the best opponent three-point field goal percentage in the league at .322. If its opponents turn the ball over, Houston has shown that it knows how to capitalize. They average 18.9 points off turnovers, making them the fourth-best team in the league for that category.
On the other side, the Mavericks head into the game with records of 35-44-3 ATS and 50-32 SU. In divisional games, Dallas has gone 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS. During the last 10 games, they averaged 109.8 PPG, above their 0.0 PPG season average. Dallas’s defense has allowed an average of 112.0 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 0.0. A large part of Dallas’s game is creating turnovers and turning them into points. They are scoring 19.3 points per game off turnovers, which ranks second in the league. The Mavericks are in for a physical game against Houston. The Rockets are not afraid to send opponents to the free throw line, averaging 22.0 fouls per game.
Following the Rockets’ latest win over Dallas, their SU record rises to 6-4 over the Mavericks in the last 10 meetings. Additionally, the Rockets lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-3-1. Houston topped the Mavericks in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last 10. Dallas has never had the edge in all categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Ranked zeroth, Houston puts up 0.0 points per game. On the other hand, Dallas gives up 0.0 and also ranks zeroth (in points allowed).
Houston and Dallas are well matched, ranking zeroth in points per home game and points allowed per away game respectively. Houston scores an average of 0.0 points per home game, while Dallas allows 0.0 points per away game on average.
The Houston Rockets won their last game by 26 points. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, the Dallas Mavericks are 14-6. Houston is 6-4 in blowouts this season.
The Dallas Mavericks have a superb 25-5 record when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Houston Rockets are 12-14 when they score less than 100.
Dallas is 25-27 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Rockets have a formidable 44-12 record when hitting triple digits.
The Mavericks have the fifth-best offensive rating in the NBA (106.7). The Rockets are also in the top half of the league based on their defensive rating of 100.5 (ranked sixth).
Dallas has an average field goal percentage of 46.3% (ranked fifth). Houston is an underachieving 10-21 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Houston Rockets average 32.7 three point attempts per game, and the Dallas Mavericks attempt 25.4 per game. When going for at least 25 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Houston is 53-24 and Dallas is 34-16.
Houston has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.39 this season (ranked 27th). Dallas ranks higher with an A/TO of 1.79 (ranked seventh).
The Rockets rank 14th in rebounds per game with 43.7, while the Mavericks rank 23rd with 42.3 per game.
The Dallas Mavericks rank 20th in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 18th in defensive rebounding.
Though Dallas is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.7% (ranked fourth), Houston has a solid 31-13 record SU when it has a TOV% of 15.7% or greater.
