Rick Porcello (1-1, 3.86 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (7-4) meet Miguel Gonzalez (1-1, 1.42 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (6-5) in the third of a four-game division series at Fenway Park. The Orioles won the last game 4-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Apr. 19 and will air on MASN and NESN.
Porcello has a 4.28 ERA and a 3-5 record in his career against the Orioles, and is up against a strong Baltimore offense that’s hitting .267 on the year. In his career against the Red Sox, Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts. Adam Jones (.415, 11 Rs, 4 HRs, 11 RBIs) has been doing well to start the season for the Orioles, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Boston, a -133 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Baltimore. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at nine runs. The Red Sox perform well as a favorite with a 4-2 record and have an overall money line of +351. Within the AL East, they have a perfect record when playing as the favorite, but a 3-1 SU. The Red Sox have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire AL, averaging 5.9 runs per game. The Red Sox typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an AL-high 4.8 walks per game. Boston’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Red Sox have given up an average of 6.2 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 5.2. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Orioles come into this game with a weak win percentage of .333 when playing as the underdog (1-2) and an overall money line of -31. Against teams in their division, they are 5-5 SU and 1-2 as the underdog.
The Red Sox will take on a right-hander (Gonzalez) in this game. They have done very well against right-handed starting pitchers this season (6-2), especially at home where they have a 3-0 record. The right-handed Porcello will take the mound against the Orioles, who have a 4-4 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 60% (3-2) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 67% (2-1) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Orioles have a 2-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 0-3. The Red Sox have a 1-4 record when opponents outhit them.
Baltimore tops the league in home runs with 17 this season. Boston ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 12.
Boston and Baltimore both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Boston sits at fourth with 9.30 hits per game and Baltimore ranks fifth with 8.50.
Ranking 14th, Boston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.700). Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .784.
The Orioles are 3-3 when they allow at least one home run. The Red Sox perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 4-4 record.
