Group A is coming to an end at the World Cup with Brazil, Mexico and Croatia battling for two spots. Brazil, the hosts, should beat Cameroon handily to get to the next round, which means Mexico and Croatia are playing for a spot on Monday. Mexico holds a one-point lead over Croatia, which means a draw will get them through, but Croatia is going to push them to the limit in what should be a truly thrilling game to watch for everyone involved.
World Cup Odds: Croatia +140, Mexico +205, Draw +235
Why Mexico Can Win
If Guillermo Ochoa plays the way he did against Brazil, Mexico can beat anyone in the World Cup. The keeper was out of his mind in a 0-0 draw against the hosts as he earned a crucial point for his team and it might be the best individual performance of the World Cup so far; it could very well hold up when it is all said and done. The fact that Mexico only needs a point in this game should help as well, although they can’t sit back and let Croatia take shot after shot. If Spain proved anything over the last six years outside of this World Cup, it is that the opposition can’t score if you have the ball.
Mexico also has to shoot better. They were terrible against Brazil, missing the target with 10 of their 13 attempts, many from long range. Maybe they should try coming in closer.
Why Croatia Can Win
Croatia were dominant against Cameroon and they played quite well against Brazil in the World Cup opener. The difference could have Mario Mandzukic, who scored twice against Cameroon, but he missed the Brazil match because of a red card he received in a qualification playoff to get Croatia here. Mandzukic gives Croatia a proven finisher that is ruthless and absolutely loves to score goals, which gives their playmakers a target to hit up front. This is a very workmanlike team that knows what they have to do to get results.
This is a massive game for Croatia, who were knocked out of the World Cup in the group stage in each of the last two tournaments and they know they have to go for it. However, they still have to be aware of their defensive responsibilities against Mexico, who can hurt them.
Outlook
These two have met just three times with Croatia winning a pair of friendly matches in 1992 and 1999, but Mexico won 1-0 in the group stage of the 2002 World Cup, so you would have to say that they have the edge. This is going to be an intriguing match to watch considering what is at stake, and they should just assume that Brazil will beat Cameroon to leave one spot open for the next round. It is going to be a hard-fought game from start to finish, but the Mexicans will do just enough to hold Croatia off and get to the next round.
Pick: Draw
