Justin Masterson (1-0, 7.59 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (7-5) meet Wei-Yin Chen (0-0, 4.35 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (7-5) in the last of a four-game division series at Fenway Park. The Orioles won the last game 8-3 and Baltimore leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 11:05 a.m. ET on Monday, Apr. 20 and will air on MASN, NESN and MLB Network.
Masterson is 6-6 with a 5.53 ERA against the Orioles in his career, and is up against a solid Baltimore offense that’s hitting .278 on the year. Hanley Ramirez (.255, 9 Rs, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs) kept up his strong start yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Red Sox, Chen is 5-3 with a 4.24 ERA. He meets a struggling Boston offense that’s batting just .239. Adam Jones (.457, 12 Rs, 5 HRs, 16 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well to start the season for the Orioles, going 4 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and five RBIs.
Boston, a -133 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Baltimore. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Red Sox are 4-3 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +216. They have an SU record of 3-2 against teams in their division and a 1-1 record when they were the favorite in those games. Boston has averaged 4.4 runs per game during divisional play, lower than its season average of 5.5. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the AL with an average of 4.6 walks per game. Whenever an AL East opponent shows up on the calendar, the Red Sox seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 5.1 runs per game, but allow 5.8 against teams from their own division. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.7 strikeouts per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Orioles come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the underdog (2-2) and an overall money line of +94. Against teams in their division, they are 6-5 SU and 2-2 as the underdog.
The Orioles are 2-1 against the Red Sox this season. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the right-hander Masterson. They sport a 5-4 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 60% (3-2) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 67% (2-1) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Orioles have a record of 4-3 when they are struck out that many times or more.
It looks like the Orioles have a slight leg up on the Red Sox, as the Orioles have won their last two games while the Red Sox have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 6-2. The Red Sox have a 6-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Boston and Baltimore both rank in the top 10 of the league in runs. Boston sits at sixth with 63 runs this season and Baltimore ranks seventh with 61.
Boston ranks at the top of the league when it comes to walks with 55 this season. Baltimore ranks in the bottom half at 17th with 33.
The Red Sox are 5-3 when they hit at least one home run. The Orioles perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 7-4 record.
