Since most fantasy basketball seasons have come to an end, now is a great time to reflect on what transpired in the previous season with an eye towards next year’s drafts. I wrote an article about players that I’m interested in targeting in upcoming drafts, and below I’m detailing players that I’ll be avoiding.
PG: George Hill, Indiana
Fantasy GM’s will remember the outstanding numbers that Hill registered down the final stretch of the NBA season when he averaged 19.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.8 three-point shots over the final 18 games. However, his numbers were a lot higher with Paul George out of the lineup and they could very well come right back down with the Pacers biggest star back at full strength next season. Hill averaged just 14.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists the previous year. The Pacers are going to be player a lot smaller next season but still, Hill had a remarkable year and it’s hard to expect him to duplicate this with George back next season.
PG: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
Rubio has perennially been talked about as a potential superstar bound to eventually break out but those that bought in to the hype a year ago learned the hard way that he may never live up to his considerable potential. Rubio averaged 10.3 points, 8.8 assists and 5.7 rebounds but played in just 22 games this season because injuries against limited him. He was also forced to have ankle surgery at the conclusion of the year. He’s tantalizing because you see the value, you see the talent that’s growing around him and you know he could be an All-Star. But the reality is that he’s played the full 82 games in a season just once in his four years and has averaged – including that 82-game season –just 50.5 games played per year. Stay away.
SF: Tobias Harris, Orlando
Harris put up decent numbers averaging 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 three-pont shots and 1.0 steal per game last season but his blocking numbers are down and he missed 14 games this past year after missing 21 games the season before. Harris is also about to sign a lucrative free agent deal that won’t add any urgency to his playing style, so while he is should still be a quality fantasy contributor, let someone else overdraft him. It makes sense not to take him too high based on the fact that he may have already peaked and could be bound to miss 14 games or more for the third straight season.
PG: Elfrid Payton, Orlando
Payton did an excellent job down the stretch last season when he averaged 12.4 points, 8.7 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game for the Magic but whether or not he can carry over that level of production and sustain it for an entire year will be a much different story. Payton will have plenty of opportunities to put up excellent umbers with a young Orlando team but considering the presence of Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and whoever the Magic bring in through free agency and the draft, it will not be a surprise to see his numbers take a dip from what they are now over the course of next season.
PF: Kenneth Faried, Denver
This was the second consecutive season in which Faried struggled out of the gate from a fantasy perspective only to rally with better numbers down the stretch. While his GM’s loved his production later on in the season, anybody that takes him early next year should be concerned about what he will do in the early going. Faried averaged 11.7 points and 8.7 rebounds in 49 games before the All-Star break and then averaged 14.3 points and 9.2 rebounds in 26 games after it, so draft with caution.
The coaching situation also makes me weary as we’re not sure who’ll take over. We saw Manimal have minimal value with Brian Shaw but came to life under Melvin Hunt. At any rate, don’t expect him to play the entire season at the same level he was at to close out last year.
