Vance Worley (1-1, 5.84 ERA) and Jason Hammel (1-0, 5.11 ERA) start in the third of a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (6-8) and the Chicago Cubs (8-5) at PNC Park. The Cubs won the last game 9-8 and Chicago leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 22 and can be seen on CSN-CHI and ROOT-PIT.
Worley pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out six and walking four in a 6-3 win over the Brewers. Starling Marte (.208, 9 Rs, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs, 2 SBs) had a good game yesterday, going 2 for 3 with three runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Hammel is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA when pitching against the Pirates. He takes on a below-average Pittsburgh offense which is hitting just .220 this season. Anthony Rizzo (.302, 10 Rs, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate to the start the season for the Cubs, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs.
Pittsburgh is a narrow -113 favorite at home against Chicago. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. The Pirates have an overall money line of -170 and a record as the favorite of 4-4. Within its division, Pittsburgh has a 3-2 record as favorite and a 5-5 record SU. The Pirates have seen an uptick in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 4.3 runs per game. They average 3.7 runs per game on the season. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank third in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.6.
As for their opponent, Chicago is coming in with an overall money line of +105 and an impressive record of 3-1 as the dog. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Cubs have really sputtered in division games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 3.5 in those contests. The Cubs are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 15 stolen bases. The Cubs average 3.8 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 2.3 against division foes. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cubs have the second-fewest in the NL with an average of just 1.9 walks allowed per game. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.5 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cubs have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Pirates have a 6-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Hammel takes the mound. Worley (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 7-4 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Cubs won by a margin of one run. The Pirates are 1-4 in one-run games. The Cubs have a 4-2 record in close games.
Pittsburgh has won 20% (1-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 67% (4-2) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Cubs who are coming in with a 6-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Cubs have a slight leg up on the Pirates, as the Cubs have won their last two games while the Pirates have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 6-1. The Cubs have a 4-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the top half of the league based on total runs this season, Pittsburgh ranks 13th with 56 runs and Chicago is 12th with 59.
Ranking 27th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 28 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at third with 50.
The Pirates are 6-4 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Cubs are 6-1 when they hit at least one homer.
