Jimmy Nelson (1-1, 1.50 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (2-12) go up against Johnny Cueto (0-2, 2.14 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (7-7) in the third of a four-game division series at Miller Park. The Brewers lost the last game 16-10, extending a seven-game losing streak. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 22 and will air on FSN-OH and FSN-WI.
Nelson has a 4.50 ERA and a 0-0 record in his career against the Reds, and is up against a less-than-stellar Cincinnati offense that’s hitting just .231 on the year. Jean Segura (.308, 7 Rs, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 2 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs. In his career against the Brewers, Cueto is 7-3 with a 3.06 ERA. He gets a struggling Milwaukee offense that’s batting just .217. Joey Votto (.377, 12 Rs, 6 HRs, 13 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Reds, going 2 for 5 yesterday with three runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Milwaukee is a +118 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Brewers have a losing record of 1-5 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -984. They are 1-5 as the underdog over their last 10 games. The Brewers are the best in the NL in walks allowed at home, giving up just 1.7 per game.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Reds come into this game in an interesting position. They have a negative money line (-56) but have won more than 60 percent of games played as the favorite (2-1). Over the past 10 matchups, they are 3-7 SU and have a poor 0-1 record when they were the favorite. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 16 stolen bases. Switching gears to Cincinnati’s pitching staff, they average just 7.6 hits allowed per game, third-best in the NL.
The previous two games have all gone Cincinnati’s way. This game will feature Cueto (RHP) on the mound against the Brewers, who have a 1-5 home and 2-8 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Nelson will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 5-5 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Under
Notes
Milwaukee recorded at least two errors for the fourth time this season.
The Reds are 1-2 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 0-1 in such matchups.
The Cincinnati batters brought in a solid 13 hits last game. Milwaukee has a record of 0-3 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 1-11. The Reds have a 2-4 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting six this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top five at fourth with 18.
Milwaukee and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Milwaukee sits at 15th with 6.85 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 11th with 7.62.
Ranking 30th, Milwaukee is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.581). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .674.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 6-6. When the Brewers allow one or more homers, they have a 0-9 record.
