J.A. Happ (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners (5-9) go up against Roberto Hernandez (0-1, 3.38 ERA) and the Houston Astros (8-6) in the last of a three-game division series at Safeco Field. The Astros won the last game 6-3 and Houston leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 10:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 22 and will air on ROOT-SW and ROOT-NW.
Happ has a 2.04 ERA and a 2-0 record in his career against the Astros, and is up against a struggling Houston offense that’s hitting just .210 on the year. Kyle Seager (.302, 5 Rs, 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. In his pitching opportunities against the Mariners, Hernandez is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA, 35 strikeouts and 18 walks. Jake Marisnick (.361, 6 Rs, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been doing well to start the season for the Astros, going 2 for 2 yesterday with two runs and one RBI.
Seattle, a -168 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Houston. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Mariners have a 4-5 record and overall money line at -494. They have an SU record of 5-5 against teams in their division and a 4-4 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Mariners are a power hitting team with 18 home runs, one of the highest totals in the MLB. Transitioning to the pitching staff, an area where the Mariners are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average 8.7 K’s per home game.
Switching gears, the Astros come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the underdog (3-3) and an overall money line of +179. Against teams in their division, they are 6-4 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 3-2 record. When it comes to scoring runs, the Astros have performed much better than normal against teams from the AL West. During those games, they averaged three runs per game, above their 3.1 season average. Houston is one of the top home-run-hitting teams in the league with 18 home runs. The Astros have racked up 15 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league. The Astros are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an AL-low 2.70 ERA on the road this season. They have a WHIP of 1.09 on the year, good for fifth in the league.
The previous two games have all gone Houston’s way. This game will feature Hernandez (RHP) on the mound against the Mariners, who have a 4-4 record when they take on a right-handed starter.
Predictions: SU Winner – SEA, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston has won 67% (4-2) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Seattle has won all of its games (3-0) when taking a late lead.
The Mariners managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are coming in with a 2-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Astros have a slight leg up on the Mariners, as the Astros have won their last four games while the Mariners have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 4-3. The Mariners have a 3-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd in runs, Houston has earned 47 this season. Seattle ranks 18th with 55 runs.
Ranking 23rd, Seattle is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 37 this season. Houston ranks in the top five at fifth with 51.
The Mariners are 5-4 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Astros are 6-4 when they hit at least one homer.
