Jake Odorizzi (2-1, 1.74 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (1-2, 6.06 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays (7-8) and the Boston Red Sox (9-6) at Tropicana Field. The Rays won the last game 7-5 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Apr. 23 and can be seen on NESN and SunSports.
Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in his appearances against the Red Sox, and goes up against a below-average Boston offense which is batting just .238 this season. Steven Souza Jr. (.288, 6 Rs, 4 HRs, 11 RBIs, 4 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Buchholz is 8-6 with a 2.45 ERA against the Rays in his career. He is up against a below-average Tampa Bay offense that’s batting just .231. Dustin Pedroia (.271, 8 Rs, 4 HRs, 9 RBIs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Boston takes on Tampa Bay as a -117 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Rays have an overall money line of -170 and a record as the underdog of 5-4. Tampa Bay has gone 5-2 in its last 10 as underdog. The Rays have seen a decline in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 2.9 runs per game. They average 3.6 runs per game on the season. Tampa Bay is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 13 bases. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Rays, who lead the AL in strikeouts per home game with 9.4.
In games where it is the favorite, Boston has a 5-4 record and an overall money line of +277. They are 2-2 as the favorite against AL East rivals, and 5-3 SU. Offensively, the Red Sox have really sputtered in division games. They have decreased their season average of 5.1 runs per game by averaging 4.1 in those contests. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with an AL-best 4.5 per game. Boston’s pitching staff is one of the top in the AL at pitching on the road, with a 3.42 ERA. The Red Sox have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 8.4 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Rays have a 5-5 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Buchholz takes the mound. Odorizzi (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 7-4 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
Tampa Bay has won 33% (2-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Boston has won 50% (3-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Rays managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Red Sox who are coming in with a 7-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When outhit, the Rays and the Red Sox both have records of 1-6.
Tied at ninth for total home runs, Tampa Bay and Boston have each hit 15 homers this season.
Ranking 14th, Tampa Bay is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.21 per game. Boston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.50.
Ranking 16th, Boston is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.689). Tampa Bay ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .703.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 4-6, well-matched with the Rays who are 2-5 when allowing at least one homer.
