The Dallas Mavericks host Game 4 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals against the Houston Rockets at the American Airlines Center. Action begins at 9:00 pm ET on Sunday, Apr. 26 and can be seen on TNT, ROOT-SW and KTXA.
The Mavericks are expecting a better outcome after their 111-99 loss to the Rockets in their last matchup. Al-Farouq Aminu had a good outing, recording nine points, four rebounds, and three blocks for Dallas. Dwight Howard claimed his 23rd double-double of the season with 28 points and 12 rebounds.
Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a key role in the matchup. Dallas commits the fourth-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.7%), while Houston’s disruptive defense causes the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.5%). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Rockets, which ranks 28th in ball security (turnover percentage of 15.9%). They’ll be going up against the disruptive defense of the Mavericks, which forces the fourth-most turnovers in the NBA (15.7%).
The odds for Dallas and Houston are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. The Mavericks have gone 50-32 Straight Up (SU) and 35-44-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They have been able to pull off wins at home against opponents within their division, going 5-3 SU, but only have a record of 3-5 ATS. Dallas is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 19.3 points per game. Dallas will look to take advantage of the Rockets and their propensity to foul. Houston ranks 27th in the league in fouls, averaging 22.0 per game.
In the other locker room, the Rockets have a record of 48-34 ATS and 56-26 SU. Against fellow division members, Houston has an 8-8 SU and a 9-7 ATS record. The Rockets rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, leading the league with 933 made (11.4 per game). The Rockets are a problem for teams on the defensive side, allowing a league-low .322 shooting from three-point range to their opponents. Houston is the fourth-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.9 per game.
With the Rockets’ last win against Dallas, their SU record is now 7-3 over the Mavericks in the last 10 meetings. The Rockets also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-2-1. Houston held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice in the last 10 matchups. On the other side of the court, Dallas never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Dallas’ offense and Houston’s defense are well matched when it comes to scoring. Dallas puts up 0.0 points per game (ranked zeroth). Houston allows 0.0 points per game, which is also ranked zeroth.
Dallas and Houston are well matched, ranking zeroth in points per home game and points allowed per away game respectively. Dallas puts up an average of 0.0 points per home game, while Houston gives up 0.0 points per away game on average.
Dallas has a superb 25-5 record when it allows under 100 points this season. Houston is 12-14 when it puts up under 100.
When the Dallas Mavericks allow at least 100 points they are 25-27, while the Houston Rockets are 44-12 when they register triple digits.
The Mavericks have the fifth-best offensive rating in the NBA (106.7). The Rockets are also in the top half of the league based on their defensive rating of 100.5 (ranked sixth).
Dallas averages fewer possessions per game than Houston, with 98.6 compared to 100.0. However, the Mavericks score an average of 1.067 points per possession, more than the 1.040 that the Rockets score.
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking sixth in the league with an EFF% of 51.5%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Houston Rockets have a losing 10-17 record.
Dallas makes an average of 22.5 assists per game (ranked eighth), while Houston makes 22.2 assists per game (ranked ninth).
Dallas makes an average of 4.5 blocks per game (ranked 20th). Houston ranks higher in blocks with 5.0 (ranked 10th).
Dallas is ranked 20th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Houston ranks 18th in defensive rebounds.
Making 8.1 steals per game, Dallas is ranked 10th in the NBA. Houston has a winning 36-21 record when it gives up at least 8 steals.
