In the second of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (8-9) and the Chicago Cubs (8-9) at the Great American Ball Park, Anthony DeSclafani (2-0, 0.86 ERA) and Jake Arrieta (2-1, 1.74 ERA) take the mound. The Cubs won the last game 7-3 and Chicago leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Apr. 25 and will air on ABC7 and FSN-OH.
In his most recent outing, DeSclafani pitched 8.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out five and walking one in a 6-1 victory over the Brewers. In his pitching opportunities against the Reds, Arrieta is 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar Cincinnati offense that’s batting just .221. Anthony Rizzo (.345, 13 Rs, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Cubs, going 3 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base.
Cincinnati is a small +105 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. When playing as the underdog, the Reds have a 5-7 record and overall money line at +58. They have an 8-8 record SU and are 5-7 as the underdog within their division. The Reds are a power hitting team with 19 home runs, one of the highest totals in the MLB. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 20 steals. As for the pitching staff, an area where the Reds are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average 9.7 K’s per home game.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Cubs come into this game with a win percentage of .444 when playing as the favorite (4-5) and an overall money line of +27. Against divisional foes, they are 5-4 SU and 3-3 as the favorite. Chicago is a terror on the base paths, ranking second in the MLB with 18 stolen bases. Chicago’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 3.4 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.1. They also allow just 1.9 walks per game, best in the NL. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the NL with an average of 8.4 strikeouts per road game.
The Cubs are 3-1 against the Reds this season. This game will feature Arrieta (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 7-6 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed DeSclafani will take the mound against the Cubs, who have a 7-5 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 43% (3-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 62% (5-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 14 strikeouts. The Cubs have a record of 2-0 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When outhit, the Reds and the Cubs both have records of 3-6.
Chicago ranks in the top half of the league at 13th when it comes to home runs, hitting 15 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top five at fifth with 19.
Ranking 12th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.50 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.47.
Ranking 26th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.641). Chicago ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .713.
When the Cubs allow at least one home run, they are 4-5, well-matched with the Reds who are 6-8 when allowing at least one homer.
