Johnny Cueto (1-2, 1.86 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (8-10) go up against Jimmy Nelson (1-1, 1.35 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (4-15) in the first of a three-game division series at the Great American Ball Park. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Apr. 27 and will air on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
Cueto has a 2.92 ERA and an 8-3 record in his career against the Brewers, and is up against a less-than-stellar Milwaukee offense that’s hitting just .223 on the year. Todd Frazier (.254, 12 Rs, 5 HRs, 14 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Reds, Nelson is 0-0 with a 2.81 ERA. He gets a struggling Cincinnati offense that’s batting just .219. Adam Lind (.318, 6 Rs, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is a slight -113 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Reds perform well as a favorite with a 3-2 record, but haven’t fared as well with the overall money line (-50). They have an SU record of 8-9 against teams in their division and a 3-2 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Reds are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 21 steals. As for the pitching staff, an area where the Reds are particularly strong is striking batters out, where they average 8.5 K’s per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .111 when playing as the underdog (1-8) and an overall money line of -1,311. Over the last 10 games, they were winless as the underdog with a 0-7 record and 1-9 SU.
The Reds are 3-1 against the Brewers this season. This game will feature Nelson (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 7-6 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Cueto will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 3-12 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati recorded at least two errors for the fourth time this season.
When the Reds play into extra innings, they have a 1-3 record. The Brewers are 0-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Brewers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are heading in with a 3-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 4-3. The Brewers have a 2-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 28th in runs, Milwaukee has earned 55 this season. Cincinnati ranks 19th with 68 runs.
Ranking 29th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 37 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 14th with 55.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 6-6. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have a 3-4 record.
