Jason Hammel (1-1, 5.19 ERA) and Vance Worley (2-1, 4.00 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Chicago Cubs (10-7) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-8) at Wrigley Field. The Pirates come into this series hoping to extend a five-game winning streak. Action begins at 8:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Apr. 27 and can be seen on ROOT-PIT and CSN-CHI.
Hammel is 4-4 with a 4.03 ERA in his appearances against the Pirates, and goes up against a below-average Pittsburgh offense which is batting just .232 this season. Starlin Castro (.329, 7 Rs, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday. When pitching against the Cubs, Worley is 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts. Starling Marte (.242, 11 Rs, 5 HRs, 13 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Pirates, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Chicago is a -120 favorite against Pittsburgh and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is unavailable as of now. The Cubs have an overall money line of +227 and a record as the favorite of 5-5. Chicago has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 4-3 and 7-4 records as the favorite and SU respectively. Chicago is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 19 bases. Chicago’s pitchers put it all together when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.3 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.9 season average. The Cubs are the second-best team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.1 walks per game so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cubs, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per home game with 8.4.
In games where it is the underdog, Pittsburgh has a 3-3 record and an overall money line of +88. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 7-3 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Pirates have really picked up the pace in division games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.9 runs per game by averaging 4.6 in those contests. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff is one of the top in the NL at pitching on the road, with a 3.04 ERA. The Pirates have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.8 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cubs have a great 9-5 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Worley takes the mound.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
After last game’s shutout win against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Pirates now have one shutout this season. The Cubs have been shut out in one game this season.
When leading after 7 innings, Chicago is 5-3, while Pittsburgh is 2-4.
The Cubs are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Pirates have a record of 5-5 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 2-6. The Cubs have a 3-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Chicago and Pittsburgh both rank in the top half of the league in home runs. Chicago sits at 13th with 16 home runs this season and Pittsburgh ranks 12th with 17.
Ranking 13th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.22 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 8.50.
Ranking 23rd, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.650). Chicago ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .706.
When the Pirates allow at least one home run, they are 2-6. When the Cubs allow one or more homers, they have a 5-5 record.
