David Phelps (1-0, 3.55 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (8-12) go up against Rafael Montero (0-1, 4.15 ERA) and the New York Mets (15-5) in the second of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The Mets won the last game 3-1 and New York leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Apr. 28 and will air on SNY and FSN-FL.
In his most recent outing, Phelps pitched 7.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out five and walking two in a 9-1 victory over the Phillies. Giancarlo Stanton (.274, 14 Rs, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. In his career against the Marlins, Montero is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He gets a strong Miami offense that’s batting .261. Travis d’Arnaud (.317, 5 Rs, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs) has been doing well to start the season for the Mets, going 2 for 3 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Miami, a -125 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against New York. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Marlins have a losing record of 4-6 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of -390. They have disappointing records of 3-4 as the favorite and 7-9 SU within their division. Whenever an NL East opponent shows up on the calendar, the Marlins pitch better. They allow an average of 4.1 runs per game, but allow just 3.7 against teams from their own division.
Moving on to the away team, the Mets come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the underdog (4-4) and an overall money line of +968. Against teams in their division, they are 13-3 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 3-2 record. The Mets average 3.3 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the NL. Shifting to the pitching staff, they have a WHIP of 1.08, second best in the MLB.
The Mets are 5-0 against the Marlins this season. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Montero) in this game. They have struggled against right-handed starting pitchers this season, going 5-10. Taking the hill against the Mets will be the right-hander Phelps. Right-handed starters haven’t been any trouble for them (11-4), but it’s a different story when they play on the road (2-4).
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 10-1, while Miami is 3-6.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mets have a 6-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 0-5. The Mets have a 6-5 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 26th when it comes to home runs, hitting 11 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 15.
Ranking ninth, New York is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 7.95 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.95.
Miami and New York both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Miami sits at 16th with an OPS of .684 and New York ranks 18th with an OPS of .683.
When the Mets allow at least one home run, they are 8-5. When the Marlins allow one or more homers, they have a 5-7 record.
