Homer Bailey (0-1, 5.56 ERA) and Kyle Lohse (1-3, 7.94 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (9-10) and the Milwaukee Brewers (4-16) at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds won the last game 9-6 and Cincinnati leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Apr. 28 and can be seen on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
Bailey is 4-8 with a 4.86 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, but goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .228 this season. Lohse is 8-5 with a 2.69 ERA when pitching against the Reds. He is up against a below-average Cincinnati offense which is hitting just .222 this season. Adam Lind (.333, 7 Rs, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 3 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Cincinnati, a substantial -201 favorite, takes on Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. Though the Reds have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-150), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 3-2. Within their division, Cincinnati has a notable 3-2 record as the favorite but an 8-10 SU. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 23 bases. Turning to the pitchers, the Reds are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.0 hits per game to their opponents this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Reds, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.6.
Over in the other dugout, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,199 and a disappointing record of 2-8 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-6 record, and a 2-8 record SU.
The Reds lead the season series, 4-1. The Reds have a 7-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Lohse takes the mound. Bailey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 4-12 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Cincinnati is 3-4, while Milwaukee is 2-5.
The Reds are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 2-3 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 2-12. The Reds have a 4-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting nine this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 21.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at 12th with 7.44 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks 13th with 7.37.
Ranking 28th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.612). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .658.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 2-12. When the Reds allow one or more homers, they have a 6-9 record.
