In a game that has the potential for a lot of runs, R.A. Dickey (0-2, 5.25 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (10-11) are in Boston to square off against Rick Porcello (1-2, 6.48 ERA) and the Red Sox (11-10). This is the last of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays won the last game 11-8 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 6:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 29 and can be seen on RSN and NESN.
Porcello is 2-5 with a 4.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts against the Blue Jays. Hanley Ramirez (.295, 15 Rs, 9 HRs, 20 RBIs, 1 SB) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. When pitching against the Red Sox, Dickey is 6-3 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts. Josh Donaldson (.349, 18 Rs, 5 HRs, 16 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 3 for 5 yesterday with three runs, one home run, and two RBIs.
Boston is a -125 favorite against Toronto and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of +42 and a record as the favorite of 7-5. Within its division, Boston has a 4-3 record as favorite and a 7-7 record SU. The Red Sox have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in offense with 5.0 runs per game. Boston leads the whole AL in walks, earning an average of 4.2 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Red Sox, who rank third in the AL in strikeouts per home game with 8.9.
Over in the other dugout, Toronto is coming in with an overall money line of -390 and a disappointing record of 4-6 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-4 record, and a 4-6 record SU. Offensively, they average 5.2 runs per game, which is good for second in the AL. The Blue Jays have a dynamic offense, ranking fourth in the league with 70 extra base hits.
The Red Sox have a 9-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Dickey takes the mound. Porcello (RHP) will be on the hill against the Blue Jays, who have a 7-10 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 50% (4-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 71% (5-2) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are coming in with a 3-0 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 1-10. The Blue Jays have a 1-9 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Toronto has hit 28 this season. Boston ranks fifth with 25 home runs.
Ranking eighth, Toronto is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.05 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.40.
Ranking 13th, Boston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.711). Toronto ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .762.
When the Blue Jays allow at least one home run, they are 9-7. When the Red Sox allow one or more homers, they have a 6-9 record.
