Mat Latos (0-3, 7.31 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (9-12) go up against Bartolo Colon (4-0, 2.77 ERA) and the New York Mets (15-6) in the last of a three-game division series at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 4-3 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 29 and will air on SNY and FSN-FL.
Latos is 2-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against the Mets in his career. Dee Gordon (.400, 11 Rs, 10 RBIs, 8 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. In his career against the Marlins, Colon is 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA. He meets a solid Miami offense that’s batting .259. Lucas Duda (.311, 12 Rs, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday.
Miami is a -116 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Marlins perform poorly as a favorite with a 4-7 record and have an overall money line of -527. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 7-10 and a 3-5 record when they were the favorite. The Marlins are fifth in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 7.8 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Mets come into this game with a win percentage of .556 when playing as the underdog (5-4) and an overall money line of +1,095. Against teams in their division, they are 14-3 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 4-2 record. The Mets average just 6.4 strikeouts per game, good for least in the NL. Switching gears to New York’s pitching staff, they have a WHIP of 1.08 on the year, good for tops in the league.
The Mets had the upper hand against the Marlins in their previous six games this season, earning a 5-1 record. This game will feature Colon (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have a 5-11 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Latos will take the mound against the Mets, who have a 12-4 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Mets lost by a margin of one run. The Marlins are 3-4 in one-run games. The Mets have a 5-2 record in close games.
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 10-2, while Miami is 4-6.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Mets have a 2-5 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 1-5. The Mets have a 6-5 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 26th when it comes to home runs, hitting 11 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 15.
Ranking 10th, New York is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 7.80 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.80.
Miami and New York both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Miami sits at 19th with an OPS of .676 and New York ranks 16th with an OPS of .681.
The Mets are 8-5 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Marlins are 5-7 when they allow at least one homer.
