This game could be low scoring as Andrew Cashner (1-3, 2.62 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (11-11) go up against Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.62 ERA) and the Houston Astros (13-7) in the last of a three-game series at Petco Park. The Astros won the last game 14-3, extending a five-game winning streak. The game starts at 3:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 29 and will air on ROOT-SW and FSN-SD.
Cashner has a 4.60 ERA and a 2-1 record in his career against the Astros, but faces a less-than-stellar Houston offense that’s hitting just .239 on the year. Yangervis Solarte (.346, 5 Rs, 2 HRs, 12 RBIs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 2 with one RBI. In his career against the Padres, Keuchel is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and three strikeouts. Jake Marisnick (.380, 10 Rs, 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been doing well to start the season for the Astros, going 2 for 3 yesterday with one RBI.
San Diego, a -122 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Houston. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at six runs. The Padres perform well as a favorite with a 6-3 record and have an overall money line of +76. They have struggled against the AL after starting 0-1 SU and 0-1 as the favorite. The Padres seem to play worse on offense against American League opponents. In those matchups, San Diego has only averaged 4.0 runs per game compared to its 4.8 season average. The Padres are a dangerous hitting team with 71 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. San Diego’s pitchers struggle against teams that play in the American League. The Padres have given up an average of 9.0 runs to opponents from the AL, well over their defense’s season average of 4.1. An area where the Padres are particularly strong is striking batters out, where they average 8.6 K’s per game.
On the other side, the Astros have a nice record of 8-4 when they are the underdog and are +675 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 8-2 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 7-2 record. The Astros are the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL when playing on the road, averaging six runs per game so far. Houston is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 26 stolen bases. Shifting to the pitching staff, they have a WHIP of 1.08, best in the MLB.
The previous two games have all gone Houston’s way. Taking the hill against the Astros will be the right-hander Cashner. They sport a 7-5 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing Houston.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing at home against Houston.
San Diego is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Houston.
Houston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against San Diego.
San Diego has won 54% (7-6) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 70% (7-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Padres managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are coming in with an 8-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Astros have a slight leg up on the Padres, as the Astros have won their last five games while the Padres have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 8-4. The Padres have an 8-1 record when outhitting opponents.
San Diego and Houston both rank in the top 10 of the league in runs. San Diego sits at sixth with 103 runs this season and Houston ranks ninth with 93.
Ranking 23rd, San Diego is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 52 this season. Houston ranks in the top five at third with 78.
When the Padres hit at least one home run, they are 8-6. When the Astros hit at least one homer, they have a 10-5 record.
