At last we have arrived. Draft Day itself and we’re not talking about the Kevin Costner movie. No reason to beat around the bush. Let’s get to it. We’ll all see how right I am beginning tonight at 8 p.m. EST. I’ll be LiveBlogging the first two rounds tonight and Friday, so look for that tonight.
Let me be clear. This draft is wrong. I’m not working in trades for two reasons: 1. I think any gamechanging trade this year is dumb. This draft is too deep and any move up to grab Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota is way too expensive. And 2. They’re completely unpredictable so I don’t know why anyone tries.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Since my second Mock Draft back in February I’ve had Winston in this spot and I’m not budging, regardless of any rumors to the contrary. I think the Bucs have made up their minds and there’s nothing any of us can do to convince them to change it.
Winston has answered some key questions recently about his love of crab legs and his intelligence, and regardless of Bomani Jones’ insistence that any comparison to NLF All-Time Bust Team Captain JaMarcus Russell is racist, it’s still going to happen. But don’t worry, Bomani, I freely compare him to Ryan Leaf too.
2. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
The Browns have tried to tempt the Titans with their two first round picks in a trade, but the Titans didn’t bite as of the time I write this. The Titans need to keep this pick and solidify their quarterback position for the next 15 seasons. The Bucs have given them a gift, taking Winston at No. 1. They can’t afford to waste it.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Leonard Williams, DT, USC
Rumors are swirling all over about what the Jaguars are going to do with this pick, possibly taking Dante Fowler Jr. or Amari Cooper. I don’t buy it. The best player in the draft falls in your lap, you take him. Don’t overthink this, Jags.
4. Oakland Raiders – Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky
A lot of drafts have the Raiders taking a wideout here, but they addressed that need by signing Michael Crabtree. What they don’t have is a pass-rushing defensive end and Dupree is a potential Robert Quinn-like monster with 4.46 speed.
5
. Washington Redskins – Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
Another possible spot for a wide receiver and another pass rusher goes instead. Beasley is this year’s Khalil Mack and pairing him with Ryan Kerrigan, will change the complexion of the entire Redskins defense.
6. New York Jets – Dante Fowler Jr., OLB, Florida
The Jets should take Brett Hundley and that’s who I had them picking in my previous mock draft. When I did my 2012 redraft, you’ll notice that I had quarterbacks going 1-4 and there was a reason for that. In the real 2012 Draft the Miami Dolphins took QB Ryan Tannehill at No. 8 and people at the time called it a reach. In the redraft, I had Tannehill going third. That’s how important a quarterback is and when you have the chance to take a legitimate NFL starter, you take him. The Dolphins may regret a lot of things, but taking Tannehill at eight in 2012 isn’t one of them. That being said, Fowler falling into your lap is not a bad choice and new Jets head coach Todd Bowles will know exactly how to use his new defensive toy.
7. Chicago Bears – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The Bears need some help on defense, especially at corner and safety, but after shipping Brandon Marshall out of town, there’s a big hole at wideout and Cooper is a day-one starter. Again, don’t outsmart yourselves, Bears. Kevin White could be great, as could DeVante Parker and Trae Waynes makes sense for you too, but if you’re worried about Jay Cutler and your offense, give him some help.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
Dan Quinn is converting the Falcons to a 4-3 defense and Atlanta has absolutely nothing on the roster to work with. Gregory will be there for the taking.
9. New York Giants – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Giants need a tackle and could go with Brandon Scherff here, but he projects more as a guard in the NFL and Peat is ready to plug in and play immediately.
10. St. Louis Rams – Brandon Scherff, OT/OG, Iowa
The Rams could end up with Kevin White here and it would be hard to argue with the pick, but they’ve been battling to build an offensive line for years and Scherff can play either guard or tackle and start immediately.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
White comes off the board here, as the Vikings have to add one of the big wide receivers in this draft. They’ll probably need a running back too if Adrian Peterson gets his way, but they can get a quality guy in the second round to feel that spot.
12. Cleveland Browns – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
If the Browns don’t take the best wide receiver available in the draft at this spot, they’re morons. So, sure, they may not. I’m going to believe that even Ray Farmer can’t screw this up.
13. New Orleans Saints – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
The Saints need a pass rusher, but Drew Brees isn’t getting any younger and unless they want to move him in a trade, it’s best to keep him upright and Flowers serves that need.
14. Miami Dolphins – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Dolphins have addressed a lot of needs with free agency so far, but they still have a gaping hole at corner. Now they get to add the highest rated defensive back in the draft.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
It’s difficult to tell what the new 49ers brain trust will do with this pick, but if they’re smart they’ll take the best player remaining on the board that also fills a need on their defensive line. So, yes, this probably won’t be the pick.
16. Houston Texans – Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
The Jets passing on Hundley lets the Texans steal him at 16 and set themselves up to battle the Indianapolis Colts head-to-head for AFC South supremacy for the next decade. The Texans can’t afford to not grab Hundley here. With the Titans getting Mariota, there’s an arms race in their division and they’ll be left behind quick without taking care of it here.
17. San Diego Chargers – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
The Chargers haven’t had a weapon like Gurley since LaDanian Tomlinson and if they’re serious about keeping Philip Rivers, and they should be, they need to give him this multi-talented weapon to work with.
18. Kansas City Chiefs – Byron Jones, CB, UConn
Jones has shot up draft boards since setting a new world record in the broad jump at the NFL Scouting Combine and he didn’t hurt his stock at all putting down a 4.43 40-yard dash at his Pro Day.
19. Cleveland Browns – (from Buffalo) Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
The Browns need offensive help and paring Gordon with Parker, taken at 12, and a healthy Johnny Manziel or even mediocre Josh McCown changes the entire dynamic of the team.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The Eagles have made a safety purge this offseason and it’s time to reload and Collins is the best safety in this group and probably second or third best defensive back in the draft.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – La’el Collins, OT, LSU
Collins drops because of his bizarre legal issues in Louisiana, and he could fall completely out of the round, but I’m going to take the Baton Rouge police at their word that he’s not a suspect in a murder, so hopefully that will all work out before the draft begins. If not, Collins may be waiting by the phone for a while.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
The Steelers need a corner and a safety and could go with Cody Pruitt or Damarious Randall here, but Johnson is the best player on the board at this point and will be a starter before the season’s over.
23. Detroit Lions – Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas
Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and C.J. Mosely are all gone so unless the Lions are planning on playing without defensive tackles, they’ll have to take more than one in this draft. Best to start with Brown at this spot.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
The Cardinals should probably look at a quarterback themselves here like Bryce Petty, but the Cardinals desperately need to add McKinney to their defense.
25. Carolina Panthers – Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
The Panthers need a long-term answer at offensive tackle and while a wide receiver makes sense here, Fisher is the best value and lets them eventually move journeyman tackle Mike Remmers to a back-up position.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
Torrey Smith is gone and the Ravens need to replace him with a deep threat. Perriman, at 6-foot-2, 212 pounds is a beast and put down a 4.26 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, sealing his position as a first-round receiver. The Ravens turn this card in quick.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
The Cowboys thought they addressed their pass rush issues with signing Greg Hardy, but he might not get to play again while Barack Obama is president. Ray has slid down some boards, but he sneaks into the first round with Dallas.
28. Denver Broncos – D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
Humphries was a second round prospect just a month ago, but as the draft gets closer, the tackle position gets more valuable. Humphries probably won’t start immediately, but he adds depth and late in the season could be ready to protect Peyton Manning on his final playoff run.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
The Colts have tons of money and will probably spend most of it after the draft. They’re a mess on the defensive line and will focus it there, but Goldman is a good start in building a legitimate front in Indianapolis.
30. Green Bay Packers – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma/Missouri
Green-Beckham was a touchdown machine for Missouri in 2013 and adding him to the Packers’ attack could be the scariest thing AFC North teams will see outside of Mike McCarthy’s private restroom.
31. New Orleans Saints – (from Seattle) Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
The Seahawks traded away their Pro Bowl center to the Saints and now they add a guy that can play guard.
32. New England Patriots – Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
The Patriots need a wide receiver and a tight end, but since Bill Belichick runs this team, there’s no way they pass up Armstead, who is a 6-foot-7, 292-pound freak of nature and the best pass rusher still on the board. But the Patriots will probably end up trading this pick because that’s what they do.
