Jordan Zimmermann (2-2, 4.88 ERA) and David Phelps (1-0, 3.38 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Washington Nationals (12-14) and the Miami Marlins (12-13) at Nationals Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, May. 4 and can be seen on FSN-FL and MASN.
Zimmermann is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA in his appearances against the Marlins, and goes up against a good Miami offense which is batting .271 this season. Bryce Harper (.261, 18 Rs, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. Phelps went 6.0 innings, surrendering two runs and striking out four in a 4-3 defeat to the Mets in his most recent start. Dee Gordon (.440, 15 Rs, 11 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Marlins, going 3 for 3 yesterday with three runs and two stolen bases.
Washington is a -162 favorite against Miami and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Nationals have an overall money line of -651 and a record as the favorite of 9-10. Within its division, Washington has an 8-9 record as favorite and a 9-10 record SU.
In games where it is the underdog, Miami has a 4-5 record and an overall money line of -127. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 9-1 SU record over the same span. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, ranking second in the NL with 9.2 hits per game. Moving on to Miami’s pitching staff and defense, the The Marlins allow just three runs per road game, ranking them fifth in the NL. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Marlins are the best in the NL with an average of 7.4 hits allowed per game.
The Marlins have the edge in the season series, 3-0. The Nationals have a bad 7-12 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Phelps takes the mound. Zimmermann (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have an 8-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, O/U – Over
Notes
Washington earned its second shutout of the season in its last game. Miami has been shut out two times this season.
Washington and Miami have both won 46% (6-7) of their games when they lead after 7 innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Nationals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have a 4-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Nationals are 2-13. The Marlins have a 1-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 26th when it comes to home runs, hitting 14 this season. Washington ranks in the top half at 14th with 20.
Ranking 10th, Washington is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.00 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at second with 9.17.
Ranking 22nd, Washington is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.672). Miami ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .708.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 7-7. When the Nationals allow one or more homers, they have a 2-6 record.
