A.J. Burnett (0-1, 1.45 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-15) square off against Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 2.03 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (14-13) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at PNC Park. The Pirates lost the last game 3-0, continuing a five-game losing streak. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 7 and can be seen on FSN-OH and ROOT-PIT.
Burnett is 7-6 with a 3.69 ERA in his appearances against the Reds, and goes up against a below-average Cincinnati offense which is batting just .232 this season. Against the Pirates, DeSclafani is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and six strikeouts. Todd Frazier (.228, 20 Rs, 9 HRs, 18 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Pittsburgh is a -138 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of -362 and a record as the favorite of 9-7. Within its division, Pittsburgh has a 5-5 record as favorite and an 8-12 record SU. Pittsburgh’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 3.8 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.3 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Cincinnati has a 6-8 record and an overall money line of -4. They are 6-8 as the underdog against NL Central rivals, and 11-11 SU. The Reds can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking third in the league with 37 home runs. The Reds are an excellent base stealing team with 32 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Reds are the best in the NL with an average of 7.5 hits allowed per game.
The Reds lead the season series, 5-0. The Pirates have a 12-12 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when DeSclafani takes the mound. Burnett (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 10-10 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati won its last game in a shutout, its first of the season. Pittsburgh has been shut out five times this season.
Pittsburgh has won 29% (2-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 56% (5-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 4-6 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Reds have a slight leg up on the Pirates, as the Reds have won their last two games while the Pirates have lost their last five.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 9-4. The Pirates have a 9-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, Pittsburgh has earned 94 this season. Cincinnati ranks 17th with 110 runs.
Ranking 26th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 58 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 12th with 86.
The Pirates are 8-7 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Reds are 12-7 when they hit at least one homer.
