Trevor Bauer (2-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Cleveland Indians (10-17) meet Mike Pelfrey (2-0, 2.63 ERA) and the Minnesota Twins (16-13) in the first of a three-game division series at Progressive Field. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 8 and will air on FSN-N and STO.
Bauer has a 5.47 ERA and a 0-2 record in his career against the Twins, and is up against a solid Minnesota offense that’s hitting .258 on the year. Michael Brantley (.341, 13 Rs, 2 HRs, 14 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run and one stolen base. In his career against the Indians, Pelfrey is 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts. Trevor Plouffe (.269, 14 Rs, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Cleveland, a -145 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Minnesota. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at eight runs. The Indians have a losing record of 6-9 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of -890. They have disappointing records of 3-8 as the favorite and 6-13 SU within their division. Cleveland has averaged 5.7 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.4. They have been very patient at the plate during home games, leading the AL with an average of 4.1 walks per game. Cleveland’s pitching staff will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent struggles. The Indians have given up an average of 6.5 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.9 runs per game. An area where the Indians are particularly strong is striking batters out, where they average an AL-best 9.3 K’s per game.
On the other side, the Twins have a record of 12-11 when they are the underdog and are +612 overall with the money line. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed a 4-1 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 8-2. Minnesota has been playing better lately, averaging 6.9 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.6. One of the top hitting teams in the AL are the Twins, who average 8.9 hits per game.
The Twins are 2-1 against the Indians this season. The Indians will take on a right-hander (Pelfrey) in this game and have a 7-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Bauer will take the mound against the Twins, who have a 7-8 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CLE, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Twins won by a margin of one run. The Indians are 0-2 in one-run games. The Twins have a 5-4 record in close games.
Minnesota has won 29% (2-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cleveland has won 36% (4-7) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Indians managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Twins who are coming in with a 7-0 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 2-13. The Twins have a 3-12 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 23rd in home runs, Minnesota has hit 20 this season. Cleveland ranks 10th with 27 home runs.
Ranking eighth, Cleveland is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.35 per game. Minnesota ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.89.
Ranking 20th, Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.687). Cleveland ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .708.
The Twins are 7-10 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Indians are 8-12 when they allow at least one homer.
