In the last of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (14-16) and the St. Louis Cardinals (14-16) at PNC Park, Jeff Locke (2-2, 4.85 ERA) and Tyler Lyons (0-0, 6.23 ERA) take the mound. The Pirates won the last game 7-5 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 10 and will air on FSN-MW, ROOT-PIT and MLB.
Locke is 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA against the Cardinals in his career, and is up against a strong St. Louis offense that’s hitting .274 on the year. Neil Walker (.287, 14 Rs, 2 HRs, 12 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his career against the Pirates, Lyons is 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA. He meets a struggling Pittsburgh offense that’s batting just .236. Matt Holliday (.354, 15 Rs, 2 HRs, 17 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been hitting the ball well, going 3 for 5 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -133 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Pirates are 10-9 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -537. They have disappointing records of 6-7 as the favorite and 9-14 SU within their division. Pittsburgh has been struggling as of late. In the last 10 games, Pittsburgh has only averaged 2.7 runs per game compared to the 3.7 they’ve averaged on the season. Pittsburgh’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Pirates have given up an average of 3.9 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 3.4. An area where the Pirates are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average 9.0 K’s per home game.
Switching gears, the Cardinals come into this game with a solid win percentage of .667 when playing as the underdog (4-2) and an overall money line of +1,352. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 9-1 SU and have an unblemished 1-0 record when they were an underdog to win. The top hitting team in the NL are the Cardinals, who average 9.5 hits per game. The Cardinals are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an NL-low 2.58 ERA this season. They also allow just 8.2 hits per game, good for fifth in the NL. The St. Louis pitching staff has been an intimidating group this year, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per game.
The Cardinals are 4-1 against the Pirates this season. The left-handed Locke will take the mound against the Cardinals, who have a 4-3 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 33% (3-6) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 77% (10-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Cardinals who are coming in with a 9-6 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 3-11. The Cardinals have a 5-2 record when opponents outhit them.
Both Pittsburgh and St. Louis are tied at 24th in home runs, hitting 22 this season.
St. Louis tops the league in hits with 9.48 per game this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 11th with 7.97.
Ranking 27th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.644). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at seventh with an OPS of .749.
When the Cardinals allow at least one home run, they are 8-5. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 3-10 record.
