Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (15-16) square off against Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (14-17) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the first of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, May. 11 and can be seen on SPSO, FSN-OH and ESPN.
Leake is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA in his appearances against the Braves, but goes up against a quality Atlanta offense which is batting .258 this season. Zack Cozart (.324, 16 Rs, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs, 3 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two RBIs. Miller is 2-3 with a 3.24 ERA when pitching against the Reds. He is up against a below-average Cincinnati offense which is hitting just .239 this season. Freddie Freeman (.328, 23 Rs, 5 HRs, 18 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate for the Braves, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs.
Cincinnati is a -136 favorite against Atlanta and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Reds have recorded an overall money line of +51 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 8-5. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 37 bases.
In games where it is the underdog, Atlanta has a 9-12 record and an overall money line of -36. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 4-6 record SU. Atlanta is excellent at not striking out with an NL-low 6.3 per game.
The Reds have a 12-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Miller takes the mound. Leake (RHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 12-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Atlanta has won 30% (6-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 42% (5-7) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds managed to give up seven walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Braves who are coming in with a 2-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 2-12. The Reds have a 4-11 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 21st in home runs, Atlanta has hit 24 this season. Cincinnati ranks third with 39 home runs.
Ranking 11th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.00 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.33.
Ranking 17th, Cincinnati is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.709). Atlanta ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .715.
The Braves are 4-11 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Reds are 10-13 when they allow at least one homer.
