Collin McHugh (4-0, 3.23 ERA) and Chris Heston (2-3, 3.38 ERA) start in the first of a two-game series between the Houston Astros (20-12) and the San Francisco Giants (16-16) at Minute Maid Park. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May. 12 and can be seen on CSN-BAY, ROOT-SW and MLB.
McHugh pitched 7.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 3-2 defeat to the Angels. Heston went 5.0 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out four and walking three in a 9-1 defeat to the Padres in his last outing.
Houston is a -133 favorite against San Francisco and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Astros have an overall money line of +870 and a record as the favorite of 5-6. Houston is a disappointing 1-3 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Astros have seen an uptick in scoring against teams in the NL, averaging 10.0 runs per game. They average 4.4 runs per game on the season. The Astros are one of the best in the MLB in terms of home runs with 45. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 36 bases. Turning to the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Astros, who have a team ERA of only 3.45. The Astros are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.09 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, San Francisco has a 8-6 record and an overall money line of -171. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 7-3 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Giants have really picked up the pace in interleague games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.2 runs per game by averaging 4.3 in those contests. The Giants allow 3.9 runs per game, but does better whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 2.0 against teams from the AL.
The Astros have an 11-8 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Heston takes the mound. McHugh (RHP) will be on the hill against the Giants, who have a 10-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
San Francisco has won 29% (2-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 64% (9-5) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Astros are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Giants have a 7-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Giants are 3-10. The Astros have a 6-7 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 27th in home runs, San Francisco has hit 20 this season. Houston ranks second with 45 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.69 per game. San Francisco ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.81.
Ranking 20th, San Francisco is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.694). Houston ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .712.
When the Giants allow at least one home run, they are 5-10. When the Astros allow one or more homers, they have a 7-7 record.
