Jacob deGrom (3-4, 3.46 ERA) and Matt Garza (2-4, 4.04 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the New York Mets (20-16) and the Milwaukee Brewers (13-23) at Citi Field. The Mets lost the last game 7-0, continuing a five-game losing streak. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 16 and can be seen on FSN-WI and SNY.
deGrom is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, and goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .229 this season. Wilmer Flores (.240, 15 Rs, 5 HRs, 11 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Garza is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA when pitching against the Mets. He takes on a below-average New York offense which is hitting just .233 this season. Ryan Braun (.256, 22 Rs, 8 HRs, 21 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and three RBIs.
New York is a -144 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +550 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 15-3. New York is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks at home, earning an average of 3.3 per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 3.03. The Mets are the third-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.16 so far this season.
As for their opponent, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,054 and a disappointing record of 8-13 as the underdog. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 5.1 during that stretch.
The Brewers have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Mets have a great 12-2 record at home (17-10 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Garza takes the mound. deGrom (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a inferior 10-17 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 12-5, while Milwaukee is 5-8.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Brewers have a 2-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 4-18. The Mets have a 7-13 record when opponents outhit them.
New York ranks near the bottom of the league at 23rd when it comes to home runs, hitting 26 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 36.
New York and Milwaukee both rank in the top half of the league in hits. New York sits at 14th with 7.66 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks 15th with 7.51.
New York and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. New York sits at 28th with an OPS of .647 and Milwaukee ranks 26th with an OPS of .671.
The Brewers are 9-18 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 10-11 when they allow at least one homer.
