Matt Harvey (5-1, 2.31 ERA) and the New York Mets (22-16) take on John Lackey (2-2, 3.22 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (25-12) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the first of a four-game series at Citi Field. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, May. 18 and can be seen on FSN-MW, SNY and ESPN.
Harvey is 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his appearances against the Cardinals, but goes up against a quality St. Louis offense which is batting .268 this season. Lucas Duda (.294, 20 Rs, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one RBI. Lackey is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA against the Mets in his career. He is up against a below-average New York offense that’s batting just .239. Matt Carpenter (.328, 28 Rs, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Cardinals, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
New York is a -137 favorite against St. Louis and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at six runs. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +625 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 17-4. Opposing offenses that come to Citi Field have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 2.50 at home. The Mets are the second-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.14 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, St. Louis has a 5-5 record and an overall money line of +1,028. St. Louis’s pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.92 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Cardinals are the best in the NL on the road with an average of 7.5 hits allowed per away game. The Cardinals have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.8 strikeouts per road game.
The Mets have a great 14-3 record at home (19-11 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Lackey takes the mound. Harvey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 20-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
New York has won 72% (13-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 73% (11-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mets are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Cardinals have an 11-1 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Mets are 7-13. The Cardinals have a 6-6 record when opponents outhit them.
New York ranks near the bottom of the league at 21st when it comes to home runs, hitting 30 this season. St. Louis ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 31.
Ranking 14th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.76 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at second with 9.25.
Ranking 26th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.668). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .742.
The Cardinals are 9-8 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 10-11 when they allow at least one homer.
