The Golden State Warriors travel to Houston to play the Rockets in a Western Conference Finals Game 3 matchup that will likely be up tempo. The game starts at 9:00 pm ET on Saturday, May 23 and will air on ESPN.
The Rockets lost to the Warriors 110-106 on Tuesday. James Harden recorded 28 points and 11 rebounds, earning his 21st double-double of the year. Stephen Curry led the game in scoring with 34 points on 13-for-22 shooting.
There should be plenty of transition action in this game. The Rockets rank third in the league in possessions per game (100.0), while the Warriors are first (101.2).
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Rockets look to build on their records of 56-26 Straight Up (SU) and 48-34 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 33-19 SU and 30-22 ATS against teams from the Western Conference. The Rockets are a phenomenal shooting team from the line with 18.6 free throws made per game, one of the highest marks in the NBA. Turning to the defensive side, the Rockets are the third-best team in the league at taking the ball away from their opponents, averaging 9.5 steals per game. If its opponents turn the ball over, Houston has shown that it knows how to capitalize. They average 18.9 points off turnovers, making them the fourth-best team in the league for that category.
On the other side, Golden State has a SU record of 67-15 and an ATS record of 47-34-1. Golden State has a record of 42-10 SU and 32-20 ATS against the West. The Warriors are shooting lights out so far, with an NBA-best .478 field-goal percentage. Defenses have a tough time accounting for every player when up against the Warriors, who average a league-leading 27.4 assists per game. Switching gears to Golden State’s defense, teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Warriors, who are the top team in the league in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .428. They average 9.3 steals per game, good for fourth in the league. Golden State makes opponents pay for turning the ball over, leading the league in points off turnovers with an average of 19.5 per game. The Warriors are in for a physical game against Houston. The Rockets are not afraid to send opponents to the free throw line, averaging 22.0 fouls per game.
Golden State won the last meeting this season between these two teams, moving its SU record against the Rockets to 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Warriors also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Houston and Golden State each held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last 10 meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Houston’s last 14 games at home.
Houston is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games, when playing Golden State.
Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Golden State.
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston’s last 11 games when playing at home against Golden State.
Houston’s offense and Golden State’s defense are well matched when it comes to scoring. Houston scores 0.0 points per game (ranked zeroth). Golden State allows 0.0 points per game, which is also ranked zeroth.
Houston and Golden State are well matched, ranking zeroth in points per home game and points allowed per away game respectively. Houston scores an average of 0.0 points per home game, while Golden State allows 0.0 points per away game on average.
Houston has a stellar 35-4 record when it allows under 100 points this season. Golden State is 8-6 when it puts up under 100.
Houston is 21-22 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Warriors have an outstanding 59-9 record when they hit the century mark.
The Warriors have the league’s top defense, with a defensive rating of 98.6. The Rockets have an offensive rating of 104.0 (ranked 12th).
With 100.0 possessions and 1.040 points per possession, the Houston Rockets perform worse on both metrics than the Golden State Warriors. Golden State averages 101.2 possessions and 1.086 points per possession.
The Houston Rockets have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with an EFF% of 51.2%. The Golden State Warriors have split their games 9-9 when opponents record a similar or higher EFF%.
On average, Houston attempts 32.7 three pointers and Golden State attempts 27.0 per game. Both teams have winning records when they have 25 or more three point attempts. The Rockets sit at 53-24 and the Warriors are 48-10.
The Golden State Warriors rank second with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.94, while the Houston Rockets rank near the bottom of the league at 27th with an A/TO of 1.39.
The Houston Rockets rebound 43.7 times per game and are ranked 14th. Ranked sixth, the Golden State Warriors rebound 44.7 times per game.
The Golden State Warriors rank 23rd in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 18th in defensive rebounding.
Though Houston is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.5% (ranked fifth), Golden State has a tremendous 17-4 record SU when its TOV% is 15.5% or greater.
