In the first of a three-game series between the Cleveland Indians (17-23) and the Cincinnati Reds (17-23) at Progressive Field, Carlos Carrasco (4-4, 4.98 ERA) and Mike Leake (2-2, 3.62 ERA) get the ball. The Reds enter this series on a five-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 22 and will air on FSN-OH and STO.
Carrasco is 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA against the Reds in his career, but is up against a less-than-stellar Cincinnati offense that’s hitting just .238 on the year. Michael Brantley (.328, 20 Rs, 4 HRs, 26 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Indians, Leake is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA, 25 strikeouts and five walks. Todd Frazier (.252, 26 Rs, 12 HRs, 23 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 3 Wednesday.
Cleveland, a -139 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Cincinnati. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Indians have a losing record of 9-14 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of -1,068. They have an SU record of 1-2 against the NL and a 1-1 record when they were the favorite in those games. Cleveland has averaged 2.0 runs per game during interleague play, lower than its season average of 4.3. The Indians typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an AL-high 3.6 walks per game. The most recent 10 game stretch for Cleveland’s pitching staff has gone great. Over that span, Cleveland’s opponents are averaging 3.4 runs per game, below their season average of 4.7. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the AL with 9.6 strikeouts per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .348 when playing as the underdog (8-15) and an overall money line of -397. Over the last 10 games, they were winless as the underdog with a 0-5 record and 3-7 SU. When it comes to scoring runs, the Reds haven’t performed as well against teams from the AL. During those games, they averaged three runs per game, below their 3.9 season average. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 43 stolen bases. Playing AL opponents really brings the worst out of the Cincinnati pitchers. They allow 5.2 runs per game against teams in the AL, which is higher than their season average of 4.5.
The Indians will take on a right-hander (Leake) in this game and have a 10-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Carrasco will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 14-16 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CLE, O/U – Over
Notes
The Reds are 1-3 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Indians are 0-2 in such matchups.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Reds are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Indians have a 5-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 2-18. The Reds have a 5-17 record when opponents outhit them.
Cleveland ranks in the bottom half of the league at 17th when it comes to home runs, hitting 36 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top five at fourth with 48.
Ranking 13th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.95 per game. Cleveland ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 8.44.
Ranking 17th, Cincinnati is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.702). Cleveland ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .723.
The Reds are 10-17 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Indians are 13-17 when they allow at least one homer.
