In the second of a three-game series between the Kansas City Royals (27-14) and the St. Louis Cardinals (27-14) at Kauffman Stadium, Danny Duffy (2-3, 5.87 ERA) and John Lackey (2-2, 2.96 ERA) get the start. The Royals won the last game 5-0 and Kansas City leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 23 and will air on FOX.
Duffy has a 1.86 ERA and a 1-0 record in his career against the Cardinals, but faces a strong St. Louis offense that’s hitting .266 on the year. Kendrys Morales (.305, 31 Rs, 6 HRs, 37 RBIs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two runs, two home runs, and five RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Royals, Lackey is 3-4 with a 3.54 ERA. He meets a solid Kansas City offense that’s batting .289. Matt Carpenter (.322, 29 Rs, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well for the Cardinals, going 3 for 4 yesterday.
Kansas City is favored by a slight -112 margin in its matchup against St. Louis. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at seven runs. The Royals have a winning record of 14-9 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,142. They are a perfect 2-0 SU and 2-0 as the favorite against the NL so far. The Royals are a dangerous hitting team with 133 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Royals, who allow an AL-low 2.9 runs per home game.
Moving on to the away team, the Cardinals come into this game with a win percentage of .417 when playing as the underdog (5-7) and an overall money line of +1,128. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 5-5 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-3 record. When it comes to scoring runs, the Cardinals haven’t performed as well against teams from the AL. During those games, they averaged three runs per game, below their 4.4 season average. Playing competition from the AL really brings the worst out of the St. Louis pitchers. They allow 3.5 runs per game against teams in the AL, which is higher than their season average of 3.0.
The only other game between the two teams went Kansas City’s way. This game will feature Lackey (RHP) on the mound against the Royals, who have a 9-4 home and 16-9 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Cardinals will be the left-hander Duffy. They sport a 5-5 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, O/U – Over
Notes
Kansas City has won 71% (12-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 73% (11-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Royals managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Cardinals who are coming in with a 6-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Royals have a slight leg up on the Cardinals, as the Royals have won their last four games while the Cardinals have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 18-6. The Royals have a 24-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 11th in runs, St. Louis has earned 181 this season. Kansas City ranks second with 207 runs.
Ranking 29th, Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 84 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top half at 13th with 132.
When the Royals hit at least one home run, the team is 17-6. St. Louis has the same record when it hits one or more homers.
