Expect a fast-paced game when the Golden State Warriors head to Houston to play the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The game starts at 9:00 pm ET on Monday, May 25 and will air on ESPN.
The Rockets lost a winnable game to the Warriors 99-98 on Thursday. James Harden recorded 38 points and 10 rebounds, earning his 21st double-double of the year. Stephen Curry shot 13-for-21 and led in scoring with 33 points.
There should be plenty of transition action in this game. The Rockets rank third in the league in possessions per game (100.0), while the Warriors are first (101.2).
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Rockets look to build on their records of 56-26 Straight Up (SU) and 48-34 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 33-19 SU and 30-22 ATS versus the Western Conference. The Rockets are an exceptional shooting team from the line with 18.6 free throws made per game, one of the highest marks in the NBA. Turning to the defensive side, the Rockets are third in the league in steals with 9.5 per game. Something to watch out for is if Houston can force its opponents into turnovers and convert them into baskets. They’ve done an excellent job of that all year with an average of 18.9 points off turnovers per game.
On the other side, Golden State has a SU record of 67-15 and an ATS record of 47-34-1. In Western Conference games, Golden State has gone 42-10 SU and 32-20 ATS. The Warriors are shooting lights out so far, with an NBA-best .478 field-goal percentage. The Warriors are the best team in the league at finding the open man with an average of 27.4 assists per game. Switching gears to Golden State’s defense, teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Warriors, who are the top team in the league in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .428. They average 9.3 steals per game, good for fourth in the league. Golden State makes opponents pay for turning the ball over, leading the league in points off turnovers with an average of 19.5 per game. Golden State may be taking trips to the free throw line early and often with the Rockets averaging 22.0 fouls per game, one of the highest marks in the NBA.
Golden State won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bringing its SU record in the past 10 games to 8-2. Additionally, with a 6-4 record, the Warriors have the advantage ATS. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Houston and Golden State each held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last 10 meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Houston 8-1-1 SU in its last 10 games at home.
Houston is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games, when playing Golden State.
Houston 10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Golden State.
Houston is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games, when playing at home against Golden State.
Both Golden State and Houston rank zeroth in points per game and points allowed per game respectively. Golden State scores 0.0 points per game, while Houston gives up 0.0.
Golden State and Houston are well matched, ranking zeroth in points per away game and points allowed at home respectively. Golden State puts up an average of 0.0 points on the road, while Houston allows 0.0 points at home on average.
Houston has a fantastic 35-4 record when it allows under 100 points this season. Golden State is 8-6 when it scores under 100.
Houston is 21-22 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Warriors have a formidable 59-9 record when they hit the century mark.
The Warriors have the league’s top defense, with a defensive rating of 98.6. The Rockets have an offensive rating of 104.0 (ranked 12th).
Golden State beats Houston in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Warriors average 101.2 possessions and 1.086 points per possession, while the Rockets average 100.0 possessions with 1.040 points per possession.
Houston has an average effective field goal percentage of 51.2% (ranked seventh). Golden State is an even 9-9 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, Houston attempts 32.7 three pointers and Golden State attempts 27.0 per game. Both teams have winning records when they have 25 or more three point attempts. The Rockets sit at 53-24 and the Warriors are 48-10.
The second-ranked team, Golden State has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.94 this season. Houston ranks lower at 27th with an A/TO of 1.39.
The Houston Rockets rebound 43.7 times per game and are ranked 14th. Ranked sixth, the Golden State Warriors rebound 44.7 times per game.
The Golden State Warriors rank 23rd in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 18th in defensive rebounding.
Though Houston is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.5% (ranked fifth), Golden State has a tremendous 17-4 record SU when its TOV% is 15.5% or greater.
