Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 2.77 ERA) takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins (30-19) as they go up against Clay Buchholz (2-6, 4.33 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (22-29) in the first of a four-game series at Fenway Park. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 1 and will air on FSN-N and NESN.
Buchholz is 3-2 with a 4.02 ERA against the Twins in his career, and is up against a solid Minnesota offense that’s hitting .257 on the year. Hanley Ramirez (.261, 28 Rs, 12 HRs, 27 RBIs, 2 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. In his career against the Red Sox, Pelfrey is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts. Brian Dozier (.258, 41 Rs, 9 HRs, 25 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Twins, going 3 for 4 yesterday with three runs.
Boston is a -160 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have a 13-18 record and overall money line at -1,091. They typically aren’t overmatched by pitchers, ranking second in the AL with an average of only 6.4 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Twins come into this game with a win percentage of .590 when playing as the underdog (23-16) and an overall money line of +1,610. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed an 8-1 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 8-2. They sport the fourth-ranked offense in the AL, averaging 4.6 runs per game. One of the top hitting teams in the AL are the Twins, who average 8.7 hits per game. Minnesota’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 3.0 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 4.2.
The previous three games have all gone Minnesota’s way. The Red Sox will take on a right-hander (Pelfrey) in this game and have a 15-21 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Buchholz will take the mound against the Twins, who have a 14-13 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – BOS, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston recorded at least two errors for the seventh time this season.
The Twins are 3-1 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 2-1 in such matchups.
The Twins are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Red Sox have a record of 13-17 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-25. The Twins have a 6-18 record when opponents outhit them.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league at 24th when it comes to home runs, hitting 39 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 12th with 49.
Ranking 11th, Boston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.16 per game. Minnesota ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.69.
Ranking 22nd, Boston is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.685). Minnesota ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .700.
The Twins are 17-14 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 8-25 when they allow at least one homer.
