Mike Pelfrey (4-2, 2.59 ERA) is on the hill for the Minnesota Twins (32-23) as they square off against Mike Fiers (2-5, 4.06 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (20-36) in the last of a three-game series at Target Field. The Brewers won the last game 4-2 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 7 and can be seen on FSN-WI and FSN-N.
Pelfrey is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, and goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .233 this season. Brian Dozier (.266, 47 Rs, 11 HRs, 28 RBIs, 3 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. Against the Twins, Fiers is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and nine strikeouts. Ryan Braun (.263, 31 Rs, 13 HRs, 39 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Minnesota is a narrow -108 favorite at home against Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs for this matchup. The Twins have recorded an overall money line of +1,680 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 6-4. Minnesota has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Twins have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. Minnesota’s pitchers fall apart when National League teams are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 6.0 against NL teams, compared to its 4.2 season average. The Twins are the top team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.3 walks per game so far this season.
As for their opponent, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,640 and a disappointing record of 14-22 as the underdog. Milwaukee has put in a great performance against teams in the AL, coming in with a nice record SU ({betdsi.at.al.su_record}) and as the underdog (3-2). Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in interleague games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 5.3 in those contests. The Brewers allow 4.9 runs per game, but does better whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against teams from the AL.
The Brewers have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Twins have a 17-15 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Fiers takes the mound. Pelfrey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a inferior 14-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIN, O/U – Over
Notes
When the Twins play into extra innings, they have a 3-1 record. The Brewers are 2-2 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Twins have a 7-14 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 6-28. The Twins have a 6-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 23rd in home runs, Minnesota has hit 44 this season. Milwaukee ranks 12th with 55 home runs.
Ranking 15th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.84 per game. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.52.
Minnesota and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Minnesota sits at 23rd with an OPS of .685 and Milwaukee ranks 28th with an OPS of .668.
The Brewers are 12-25 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Twins are 18-17 when they allow at least one homer.
