Jeff Samardzija (4-3, 4.68 ERA) and the Chicago White Sox (25-29) meet Alfredo Simon (5-3, 2.97 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (29-28) in the last of a three-game division series at U.S. Cellular Field. The Tigers won the last game 7-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 7 and will air on FSN-DET and WGN.
Samardzija has a 1.80 ERA and a 1-0 record in his career against the Tigers, but faces a strong Detroit offense that’s hitting .271 on the year. In his career against the White Sox, Simon is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and six strikeouts. Yoenis Cespedes (.292, 30 Rs, 7 HRs, 28 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs.
Chicago is a -128 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the White Sox have a 14-11 record and overall money line at -483. They are 3-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The White Sox seem to play worse against their division opponents. In divisional matchups, Chicago has only averaged 3.1 runs per game compared to its 3.7 season average. Don’t expect the Chicago hitters to swing wildly. They average only 7.2 strikeouts per game. Turning to the pitching staff, an area where the White Sox are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average 8.6 K’s per home game.
On the other side, the Tigers have a record of 10-11 when they are the underdog and are -335 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 2-8 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-4 record. The Tigers will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Detroit’s run production has dropped to 2.6 runs per game, compared to 3.7 for the duration of the season. One of the top hitting teams in the AL are the Tigers, who average 9.1 hits per game. The Tigers have racked up 46 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league. The Tigers are one of the top AL pitching staffs on the road, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of four runs allowed per away game. They also allow just 2.7 walks per game, good for third in the AL.
This game will feature Simon (RHP) on the mound against the White Sox, who have a 21-23 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Tigers will be the right-hander Samardzija. They sport a 20-22 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – DET, O/U – Over
Notes
Chicago has won 55% (11-9) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Detroit has won 60% (15-10) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the White Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Tigers have a 15-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Tigers are 2-19. The White Sox have a 5-24 record when opponents outhit them.
Chicago and Detroit both rank near the bottom of the league in home runs. Chicago sits at 28th with 37 home runs this season and Detroit ranks 24th with 43.
Ranking ninth, Chicago is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.38 per game. Detroit ranks in the top five at second with 9.11.
Ranking 29th, Chicago is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.648). Detroit ranks in the top five at fourth with an OPS of .739.
When the Tigers allow at least one home run, they are 10-19, well-matched with the White Sox who are 13-22 when allowing at least one homer.
