In a game that has the potential for a lot of runs, Jason Vargas (4-2, 4.79 ERA) and the Kansas City Royals (31-23) are in Minnesota to take on Phil Hughes (4-5, 4.96 ERA) and the Twins (33-23). This is the first of a three-game series at Target Field. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 8 and can be seen on FSN-KC and FSN-N.
Hughes is 7-4 with a 5.06 ERA in his appearances against the Royals, and goes up against a good Kansas City offense which is batting .271 this season. Brian Dozier (.267, 47 Rs, 11 HRs, 28 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Against the Twins, Vargas is 5-4 with a 4.25 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts. Kendrys Morales (.293, 32 Rs, 6 HRs, 39 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Minnesota is a narrow -110 favorite at home against Kansas City. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of eight runs. The Twins have an overall money line of +1,554 and a record as the favorite of 6-5. Minnesota has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Twins are the top team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.3 walks per game so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Kansas City has a 14-10 record and an overall money line of +518. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 2-8 record SU. Offensively, the Royals have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.4 runs per game by averaging 2.2 during that stretch. The Royals are tough outs for opponents, ranking second in the AL with 9.2 hits per game. Kansas City is excellent at not striking out with an AL-low 5.9 per game. The Royals allow 3.6 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 4.7 runs per game during that span.
The Twins have a great 7-3 record at home (15-7 overall) against left-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Vargas takes the mound. Hughes (RHP) will be on the hill against the Royals, who have a 20-16 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Royals won by a margin of one run. The Twins are 11-7 in one-run games. The Royals have a 6-5 record in close games.
When leading after 7 innings, Kansas City is 14-7, while Minnesota is 9-9.
The Twins are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Royals have a 20-18 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Royals are 2-18. The Twins have a 6-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Minnesota ranks 24th with 44 homers and Kansas City is 26th with 40.
Ranking eighth, Minnesota is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.49 per game. Kansas City ranks in the top five at second with 9.23.
Ranking 24th, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.686). Kansas City ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .730.
When the Royals allow at least one home run, they are 13-16. When the Twins allow one or more homers, they have an 18-17 record.
