Mike Leake (2-4, 4.40 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (24-31) meet Cole Hamels (5-4, 2.88 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (22-36) in the first of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 8 and will air on CSN-PHI and FSN-OH.
Leake has a 6.43 ERA and a 1-3 record in his career against the Phillies, but is up against a struggling Philadelphia offense that’s hitting just .236 on the year. Joey Votto (.295, 28 Rs, 10 HRs, 31 RBIs, 5 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. In his pitching opportunities against the Reds, Hamels is 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 82 strikeouts and 30 walks. Ryan Howard (.245, 20 Rs, 11 HRs, 27 RBIs) has been doing well offensively for the Phillies, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Cincinnati is a small underdog (-103) and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Reds have a losing record of 10-21 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -843. Cincinnati has averaged 5.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.0. The Reds are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 54 steals. Turning to the pitching staff, the Reds are fourth in the NL in hits allowed with just 8.3 per game.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of 3-5 when playing as the favorite (.375) and an overall money line of -1,136. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 2-8 SU and have played poorly as the favorite with a 1-3 record.
The Phillies are 2-1 against the Reds this season. This game will feature Hamels (LHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 6-7 record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the right-hander Leake. Right-handed starters have been a big issue for them as they sport records of 6-16 on the road and 17-29 overall.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Under
Notes
Philadelphia has won 34% (10-19) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 36% (8-14) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Phillies have a 10-25 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Phillies are 6-27. The Reds have a 6-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Philadelphia has hit 36 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 62 home runs.
Cincinnati and Philadelphia both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at 12th with 8.06 hits per game and Philadelphia ranks 15th with 7.82.
Ranking 30th, Philadelphia is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.642). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .711.
When the Phillies allow at least one home run, they are 7-25. When the Reds allow one or more homers, they have a 12-24 record.
