Matt Garza (4-7, 5.09 ERA) and Tanner Roark (2-2, 3.16 ERA) take the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (22-38) and the Washington Nationals (31-28) at Miller Park. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 11 and can be seen on MASN2 and FSN-WI.
Garza is 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts against the Nationals. Against the Brewers, Roark is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and five strikeouts. Denard Span (.299, 23 Rs, 5 HRs, 19 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 3 for 6 yesterday with two RBIs.
Washington is a narrow -111 favorite over Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs for this matchup. The Brewers have an overall money line of -1,359 and a record as the underdog of 17-22. Milwaukee has gone 6-2 in its last 10 as underdog. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 3.1 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.7. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Brewers, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.3.
In games where it is the favorite, Washington has a 26-20 record and an overall money line of -369. They played poorly as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 2-6 record, and a 3-7 record SU. Offensively, they average 4.3 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. Washington is excellent at drawing walks with 3.2 per game, ranking fourth in the NL. When it comes to issuing walks, the Nationals have the second-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.5 walks allowed per game. The Nationals have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 7.8 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Brewers have a bad 7-16 record at home (16-30 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Roark takes the mound. Garza (RHP) will be on the hill against the Nationals, who have a 22-24 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – WSH, O/U – Over
Notes
Milwaukee has won 39% (9-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Washington has won 57% (16-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Brewers are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Nationals have a 5-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 6-30. The Nationals have a 6-26 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks in the top half of the league at 12th when it comes to home runs, hitting 57 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 62.
Ranking 15th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.85 per game. Washington ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.38.
Ranking 28th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.658). Washington ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .720.
The Nationals are 9-16 when they allow at least one home run. The Brewers perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 13-26 record.
