Tsuyoshi Wada (0-1, 4.19 ERA) and Michael Lorenzen (1-1, 3.29 ERA) take the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Chicago Cubs (31-26) and the Cincinnati Reds (27-31) at Wrigley Field. Action begins at 8:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 11 and can be seen on FSN-OH and CSN-CHI.
Wada pitched 3.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs, striking out one and walking two in a 7-5 defeat to the Nationals. Anthony Rizzo (.327, 34 Rs, 11 HRs, 37 RBIs, 10 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 6 with one run and two RBIs. Lorenzen went 0.0 inning, surrendering zero runs in an 11-2 defeat to the Phillies in his most recent start. Todd Frazier (.293, 41 Rs, 17 HRs, 37 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Reds, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs.
Chicago is a -157 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Cubs have an overall money line of +96 and a record as the favorite of 18-14. Within its division, Chicago has an 8-7 record as favorite and a 14-13 record SU. Chicago is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 46 bases. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses that come to Wrigley Field have been stifled by the Cubs, who have a team ERA of only 3.12 at home. The Cubs are the second-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.9 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In the other locker room, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -543 and a disappointing record of 10-21 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-3 record, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Reds have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 5.7 during that stretch. The Reds are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 56 stolen bases. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Reds are third in the NL with an average of 8.3 hits allowed per game.
The Cubs lead the season series, 4-1. The Cubs have a 25-22 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Lorenzen takes the mound. Wada (LHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 7-7 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Chicago is 14-12, while Cincinnati is 10-14.
The Cubs are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Reds have a 2-7 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 6-21. The Cubs have a 7-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Chicago ranks in the top half of the league at 13th when it comes to home runs, hitting 55 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top five at fifth with 70.
Chicago and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Chicago sits at 11th with 8.25 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 12th with 8.23.
Ranking 16th, Chicago is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.707). Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .724.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 12-24. When the Cubs allow one or more homers, they have an 18-19 record.
