In the first of a three-game series between the Houston Astros (34-27) and the Seattle Mariners (34-27) at Minute Maid Park, Brett Oberholtzer (0-1, 3.75 ERA) and Felix Hernandez (9-2, 2.51 ERA) get the start. The Astros go into this series on a seven-game losing streak. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 12 and will air on ROOT-NW, ROOT-SW and MLB N.
Oberholtzer is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA against the Mariners in his career, and is up against a less-than-stellar Seattle offense that’s hitting just .236 on the year. George Springer (.254, 27 Rs, 8 HRs, 19 RBIs, 13 SBs) continued his strong season Wednesday, going 5 for 5 with one stolen base. In his career against the Astros, Hernandez is 3-2 with a 1.84 ERA. He gets a struggling Houston offense that’s batting just .233.
Houston is a +153 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Astros are 19-14 as the underdog and have an overall money line of +531. They have struggled as the underdog over their last 10 games, going 0-5. Houston has averaged 3.0 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.1. The Astros rank third in the majors in extra base hits with 188. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking third in all of baseball with 50 steals. Houston’s pitching staff can be considered one of the best in the AL. The Astros have a team ERA of 3.55, one of the lowest in their league. The Astros don’t allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.17 WHIP.
On the other side, the Mariners have a record of 18-20 when they are favored and are -897 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 3-7 SU and have played poorly as the favorite with a 1-5 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.5 runs per game, below their 3.5 season average. The Mariners are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.54 ERA this season.
The Astros have gotten the best of the Mariners in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-1. This game will feature Hernandez (RHP) on the mound against the Astros, who have a 22-14 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The left-handed Oberholtzer will take the mound against the Mariners, who have a 5-6 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Under
Notes
Seattle has won 56% (10-8) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 58% (15-11) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Astros are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mariners have an 11-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Astros are 9-18. The Mariners have a 10-17 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Houston has hit 79 this season. Seattle ranks seventh with 64 home runs.
Houston and Seattle both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Houston sits at 15th with 7.74 hits per game and Seattle ranks 12th with 8.08.
Ranking 23rd, Seattle is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.684). Houston ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .707.
When the Mariners allow at least one home run, they are 11-28, well-matched with the Astros who are 12-19 when allowing at least one homer.
