Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Jason Hammel (5-2, 2.76 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (32-26) go up against Johnny Cueto (4-4, 2.64 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (27-32) in the second of a four-game series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the last game 6-3 and Chicago leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 12 and will air on FSN-OH and WGN.
Hammel is 0-1 with a 5.22 ERA, 30 strikeouts and five walks against the Reds in his career. Anthony Rizzo (.327, 36 Rs, 11 HRs, 37 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two runs. In his career against the Cubs, Cueto is 9-8 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts. Joey Votto (.298, 33 Rs, 13 HRs, 35 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Chicago is a small -113 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Cubs are 19-14 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +196. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (3-1). They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in all of baseball with 46 steals. Chicago’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 3.12 team ERA at home. The Cubs are second in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 7.9 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .323 when playing as the underdog (10-21) and an overall money line of -543. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 6-4 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-3 record. Cincinnati has been playing better lately, averaging 5.7 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 56 stolen bases. Switching gears to Cincinnati’s pitching staff, they average just 8.3 hits allowed per game, fifth-best in the NL.
The Cubs have gotten the best of the Reds in head-to-head matchups this season, going 5-1. The Cubs will take on a right-hander (Cueto) in this game and have a 26-22 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Hammel will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 20-24 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
Cincinnati has won 42% (10-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 54% (14-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cubs are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Reds have an 8-15 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 6-22. The Cubs have a 7-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 13th in home runs, Chicago has hit 57 this season. Cincinnati ranks fifth with 71 home runs.
Chicago and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Chicago sits at 11th with 8.37 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 12th with 8.28.
Ranking 15th, Chicago is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.709). Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .721.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 12-25. When the Cubs allow one or more homers, they have a 19-19 record.
