Jacob deGrom (7-4, 2.42 ERA) and the New York Mets (33-29) square off against Shelby Miller (5-2, 1.84 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (29-32) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the second of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 5-3 and New York leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 13 and can be seen on SPSO and PIX11.
deGrom is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in his appearances against the Braves, but goes up against a good Atlanta offense which is batting .258 this season. Wilmer Flores (.249, 28 Rs, 10 HRs, 28 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. Against the Mets, Miller is 0-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts. Freddie Freeman (.306, 39 Rs, 11 HRs, 37 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday.
New York is a -135 favorite against Atlanta and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at six runs. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +179 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 26-8. New York has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 17-5 and 21-11 records as the favorite and SU respectively. New York’s pitchers put it all together when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.2 against fellow NL East members, compared to its 3.8 season average. The Mets are the second-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Atlanta has a 20-25 record and an overall money line of +246. They are 8-10 as the underdog against teams in their division, and 13-14 SU. Atlanta is excellent at not striking out with an NL-low 6.8 per game.
The Mets have controlled the season series, 5-2. The Mets have a 28-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Miller takes the mound. deGrom (RHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 25-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 16-11, while Atlanta is 12-22.
The Mets managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Braves who are coming in with a 4-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Mets have a slight leg up on the Braves, as the Mets have won their last two games while the Braves have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 22-11. The Mets have a 21-3 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th, New York is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 234 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 257.
Ranking 17th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 170 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top half at 13th with 186.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 22-10, well-matched with the Braves who are 18-10 when hitting one or more homers.
