Jon Lester (4-5, 4.25 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (33-27) meet Anthony DeSclafani (5-4, 3.53 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (28-33) in the last of a four-game division series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the last game 4-3 and Chicago leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 8:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 14 and will air on ESPN.
In his most recent outing, Lester pitched 4.1 innings, giving up five runs, striking out five and walking two in a 6-0 loss to the Tigers. Kris Bryant (.297, 37 Rs, 7 HRs, 35 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 4 with three runs. In his career against the Cubs, DeSclafani is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts. Joey Votto (.296, 34 Rs, 14 HRs, 36 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Chicago is a -172 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. When playing as the favorite, the Cubs have a 20-15 record and overall money line at +171. They have an SU record of 15-14 against teams in their division and a 9-8 record when they were the favorite in those games. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fifth in all of baseball with 46 steals. Chicago’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 3.07 team ERA at home. The Cubs are second in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 7.9 per game.
Across the field, the Reds have a subpar record of 11-22 when they are the underdog and are -528 overall with the money line. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 1-4 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 6-4. Cincinnati has been playing better lately, averaging 5.3 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 60 stolen bases. Switching gears to Cincinnati’s pitching staff, they allow just 8.3 hits per game, good for fourth in the NL.
The Cubs had the upper hand against the Reds in their previous eight games this season, earning a 6-2 record. The Cubs will take on a right-hander (DeSclafani) in this game and have a 27-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Reds will be the left-hander Lester. They sport a 7-8 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
The Reds lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Cubs are 16-11. The Reds are 9-11 in close games this season.
When the Cubs play into extra innings, they have a 6-3 record. The Reds are 2-4 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Reds are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Cubs have a 1-1 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 20-8. The Cubs have a 21-3 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the bottom half of the league based on total runs this season, Chicago ranks 20th with 248 runs and Cincinnati is 17th with 251.
Ranking seventh, Cincinnati is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 197 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at third with 205.
The Cubs are 22-13 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Reds are 24-18 when they hit at least one homer.
