Mike Pelfrey (5-3, 3.18 ERA) and the Minnesota Twins (35-30) square off against Jaime Garcia (2-3, 2.06 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (43-22) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the second of a two-game series at Target Field. The Twins won the last game 3-1 and Minnesota leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 18 and can be seen on FSN-MW and MLB Network.
Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his appearances against the Cardinals, but goes up against a good St. Louis offense which is batting .262 this season. Garcia went 8.0 innings, surrendering zero runs and striking out six in a 4-0 win over the Royals in his most recent start. Jhonny Peralta (.311, 30 Rs, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
St. Louis takes on Minnesota as a -130 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Twins have an overall money line of +1,064 and a record as the underdog of 28-24. Minnesota has recorded a disappointing 2-6 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Twins have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.2 runs per game. As for the pitchers, the Twins are the top team in the AL at limiting walks during home games, allowing only 2.2 walks per contest to their opponents this season.
Over in the other dugout, St. Louis is coming in with an overall money line of +1,979 and an impressive record of 34-11 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, the Cardinals have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 2.9 during that stretch. St. Louis’s pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.63 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Cardinals are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.20 for the season.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 2-1. The Twins have a 15-9 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Garcia takes the mound. Pelfrey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 36-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
When the Twins play into extra innings, they have a 3-1 record. The Cardinals are 5-3 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Twins have a 10-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 30-8. The Twins have a 23-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th in runs, St. Louis has earned 254 this season. Minnesota ranks 15th with 270 runs.
Ranking 25th, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 156 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top half at 14th with 198.
The Twins are 26-10 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 26-8 when they hit at least one homer.
