Mark Buehrle (7-4, 4.01 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (1-0, 4.50 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (37-32) and the Baltimore Orioles (34-33) at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 5-4 and Toronto leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 1:07 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 20 and can be seen on MASN, RSN and MLB Network.
Buehrle is 11-10 with a 3.56 ERA in his appearances against the Orioles, and goes up against a quality Baltimore offense which is batting .257 this season. Chris Colabello (.350, 28 Rs, 5 HRs, 24 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 2 with one run. Gausman is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA against the Blue Jays in his career. He is up against a good Toronto offense that’s batting .269. Manny Machado (.292, 45 Rs, 14 HRs, 34 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Orioles, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs and one stolen base.
Toronto is a -150 favorite against Baltimore and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Blue Jays have recorded an overall money line of +228 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 22-12. Toronto is unbeaten as the favorite and has an 8-2 SU record in its last ten outings. The Blue Jays have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 7.3 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 5.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays have no trouble scoring as they lead the AL in offense with 5.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays lead the MLB in extra base hits with 236. Toronto is one of the best in the AL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.2 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses that come to the Rogers Centre have been stifled by the Blue Jays, who have a team ERA of only 3.30 at home.
In the other locker room, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+139), Baltimore has an unimpressive 12-18 record when playing as the underdog. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have an 8-2 SU record over the same span. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for fourth in the AL. The Orioles allow 3.9 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.8 runs per game during that span.
The Blue Jays have controlled the season series, 7-3. The Blue Jays have a 25-28 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Gausman takes the mound. Buehrle (LHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have an 8-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
The Orioles lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Blue Jays are 7-14. The Orioles are 10-11 in close games this season.
Baltimore has won 59% (16-11) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 62% (20-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Orioles managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are heading in with an 8-0 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 4-24. The Orioles have a 5-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling in the top five of the league based on total home runs this season, Toronto ranks second with 84 homers and Baltimore is fifth with 82.
Ranking sixth, Baltimore is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.59 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 9.07.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .782. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at seventh with an OPS of .732.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 19-22. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 23-23 record.
