Scott Copeland (1-1, 2.57 ERA) and Chris Tillman (5-7, 5.58 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (37-33) and the Baltimore Orioles (35-33) at the Rogers Centre. The Orioles won the last game 5-3 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 21 and can be seen on MASN and RSN.
Copeland pitched 4.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs and striking out one in a 3-2 defeat to the Mets. Josh Donaldson (.303, 55 Rs, 17 HRs, 46 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Tillman is 4-9 with a 5.23 ERA when pitching against the Blue Jays. He is up against a quality Toronto offense which is hitting .270 this season. Manny Machado (.298, 47 Rs, 14 HRs, 36 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Orioles, going 3 for 5 yesterday with two runs and two RBIs.
Toronto is a -127 favorite against Baltimore and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Blue Jays have recorded an overall money line of +328 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 23-12. Toronto is unbeaten as the favorite and has an 8-2 SU record in its last ten outings. The Blue Jays lead the MLB in extra base hits with 238. Toronto is one of the best in the AL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.3 per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses that come to the Rogers Centre have been stifled by the Blue Jays, who have a team ERA of only 3.32 at home. The Blue Jays are the second-best team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.6 hits per game to their opponents this season.
As for their opponent, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+39), Baltimore has an unimpressive 12-19 record when playing as the underdog. They are 7-10 as the underdog against AL East rivals, and 20-19 SU. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for third in the AL. The Orioles allow 3.9 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.4 against division foes.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 7-4. The Blue Jays have a 26-28 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Tillman takes the mound. Copeland (RHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 26-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
Baltimore has won 59% (16-11) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 62% (20-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Baltimore batters brought in a solid 10 hits last game. Toronto has a record of 9-10 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 26-7. The Blue Jays have a 33-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league when it comes to runs with 384 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top five at fifth with 304.
Ranking 22nd, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 169 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 230.
When the Blue Jays hit at least one home run, they are 32-16, well-matched with the Orioles who are 28-16 when hitting one or more homers.
