Charlie Morton (5-0, 1.62 ERA) is on the hill for the Pittsburgh Pirates (39-29) as they square off against Gio Gonzalez (4-4, 4.82 ERA) and the Washington Nationals (36-33) in the last of a three-game series at Nationals Park. The Nationals won the last game 6-0 and Washington leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 21 and can be seen on ROOT-PIT and MASN2.
Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts against the Pirates. Bryce Harper (.347, 51 Rs, 23 HRs, 55 RBIs, 3 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Morton is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA when pitching against the Nationals. He takes on a quality Washington offense which is hitting .257 this season.
Washington is a -124 favorite against Pittsburgh and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Nationals have an overall money line of -485 and a record as the favorite of 27-22. The Nationals are the second-best team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.4 walks per game so far this season.
In the other locker room, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+608), Pittsburgh has an unimpressive 6-12 record when playing as the underdog. Offensively, the Pirates have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 3.0 during that stretch. The Pirates are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the NL with 8.9 hits per game. The Pirates are an excellent base stealing team with 51 stolen bases, ranking fifth in the MLB. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.86 ERA on the road. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Pirates are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.18 for the season. The Pirates have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.1 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Nationals have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Nationals have a 26-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Morton takes the mound. Gonzalez (LHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a very good 8-4 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – WSH, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 41% (11-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Washington has won 59% (20-14) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Nationals are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Pirates have a 6-9 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Nationals have a slight leg up on the Pirates, as the Nationals have won their last two games while the Pirates have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 29-5. The Nationals have a 27-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 20th, Pittsburgh sits in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 271 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 302.
Ranking 24th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 166 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 213.
When the Nationals hit at least one home run, they are 26-14, well-matched with the Pirates who are 23-14 when hitting one or more homers.
