Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 3.70 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (31-36) meet David Phelps (4-3, 3.96 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (30-40) in the last of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Marlins won the last game 5-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 21 and will air on FSN-FL and FSN-OH.
In his most recent outing, Lorenzen pitched 0.0 inning, giving up zero runs in an 8-4 loss to the Tigers. Joey Votto (.296, 35 Rs, 14 HRs, 36 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his career against the Reds, Phelps is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts. Giancarlo Stanton (.261, 45 Rs, 25 HRs, 63 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Cincinnati is a small -113 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Reds are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they’re the favorite (19-10), their overall money line (-503) is less impressive. They have SU record of 6-4 and are unbeaten as the favorite (4-0) over their last 10 games. The Reds come into the game with the NL’s third-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 4.7 runs per game in their own ballpark. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 67 steals.
Moving on to the away team, the Marlins come into this game with a weak win percentage of .389 when playing as the underdog (14-22) and an overall money line of -1,268. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 1-4 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 5-5.
This game will feature Phelps (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 22-26 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander Lorenzen. They sport a 21-33 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Cincinnati is 12-17, while Miami is 14-22.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Reds are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have a 5-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 4-26. The Reds have a 6-26 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league at 19th when it comes to home runs, hitting 58 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 80.
Ranking 12th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.29 per game. Miami ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.84.
Ranking 21st, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.691). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .715.
The Marlins are 13-25 when they allow at least one home run. The Reds perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 14-28 record.
