Joe Kelly (2-4, 5.32 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (31-40) go up against Ubaldo Jimenez (5-3, 3.27 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (36-33) in the first of a three-game division series at Fenway Park. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jun. 23 and will air on MASN and NESN.
Kelly has a 3.32 ERA and a 1-1 record in his career against the Orioles, but is up against a solid Baltimore offense that’s hitting .259 on the year. Brock Holt (.318, 27 Rs, 2 HRs, 18 RBIs, 4 SBs) continued his strong season Sunday, going 3 for 5 with two runs and two RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Red Sox, Jimenez is 1-3 with an 8.42 ERA. He gets a strong Boston offense that’s batting .256. Manny Machado (.303, 48 Rs, 14 HRs, 38 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Orioles, going 3 for 5 Sunday with one run and two RBIs.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Red Sox have an SU record of 10-21 against teams in their division. The most recent 10-game stretch for the Red Sox has gone great. Over that span, Boston is averaging 6.1 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.1. The Red Sox typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.2 walks per game. Whenever an AL East opponent shows up on the calendar, the Red Sox seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 4.7 runs per game, but allow 5.7 against teams from their own division.
Against divisional rivals, the Orioles are 22-19 SU. They sport the third-ranked offense in the AL, averaging 4.6 runs per game. The Orioles are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.74 ERA this season.
The Orioles have gotten the best of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-3. This game will feature Jimenez (RHP) on the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 23-29 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the right-hander Kelly. They sport a 27-27 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL
Notes
The Red Sox won their last game by an 11-run margin. In games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more, the Orioles are 2-0. The Red Sox are 1-2 in blowouts this season.
The Red Sox managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Orioles who are coming in with a 12-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-33. The Orioles have a 5-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 12th in home runs, Boston has hit 68 this season. Baltimore ranks fifth with 84 home runs.
Boston and Baltimore both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Boston sits at sixth with 8.79 hits per game and Baltimore ranks seventh with 8.68.
Ranking 12th, Boston is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.720). Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .738.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 20-22. When the Red Sox allow one or more homers, they have a 12-31 record.
