Eduardo Rodriguez (3-1, 3.13 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (32-41) square off against Miguel Gonzalez (5-4, 3.33 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (37-34) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox won the last game 5-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 25 and can be seen on MASN and NESN.
Rodriguez pitched 6.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out five and walking one in a 7-3 win over the Royals. Hanley Ramirez (.283, 41 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 2. Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA when pitching against the Red Sox. He is up against a quality Boston offense which is hitting .255 this season. Jimmy Paredes (.311, 30 Rs, 8 HRs, 34 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Boston is a -125 favorite against Baltimore and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -1,765 and a record as the favorite of 20-27. Boston has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 6-14 and 10-22 as the favorite and SU respectively. The Red Sox have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.5 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. Boston is one of the best in the AL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.2 per game. Boston’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 5.7 against fellow AL East members, compared to its 4.7 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Baltimore has a 15-19 record and an overall money line of +376. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average 4.6 runs per game, which is good for third in the AL. The Orioles allow 4.0 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.5 against division foes.
The Orioles lead the season series, 8-4. The Red Sox have a 23-30 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Gonzalez takes the mound. Rodriguez (LHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 9-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
For the seventh time this season, the Orioles registered at least two errors in a game.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Orioles have a 10-14 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 5-34. The Orioles have a 5-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Boston ranks in the top half of the league at 13th when it comes to home runs, hitting 69 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top five at fifth with 85.
Boston and Baltimore both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Boston sits at sixth with 8.78 hits per game and Baltimore ranks seventh with 8.71.
Ranking 16th, Boston is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.717). Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .738.
The Orioles are 20-23 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 12-32 when they allow at least one homer.
